Blue Wave? July Data

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as presidential politics.

Dylan Scott at Vox:

The evidence just keeps piling up: Democrats are in a good position to take the House in the 2018 midterm elections. 

Two new data points arrived on Wednesday: Both Quinnipiac University and the Kaiser Family Foundation found Democrats with a 12-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. That is well above what political scientists think they need to win back the House (7 points or so). 

The specific results:

• The Kaiser Family Foundation showed Democrats leading Republicans 49 percent to 37 percent, up from an 8-point 46-38 lead in April.
• Quinnipiac had Democrats leading 51 percent to 39 percent over Republicans, up from a 9-point lead in late June.

As Vox reported on Tuesday, with a little more than three months left until Election Day, Democrats seem to be strengthening their position to win control of the House.