Search This Blog

Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Thursday, July 29, 2021

CA Recall Gets More Interesting

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

Mark DiCamillo at IGS:
The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds that the proportion of voters in the overall electorate who favor recalling Governor Gavin Newsom has not changed much over the past year. At present 36% of the state’s registered voters say that if voting in the recall election they would vote Yes to recall the Governor, while 51% would vote No to retain him.

However, the  election  will  be  decided not  by  the  overall  electorate, but by only those  who choose to take partin the recall.And, when the voting preferences of those considered most likely  to  participate  are  examined,the outcome becomes much closer, with  47% favoring Newsom’s recall and 50% favoring his retention.The  main  factor  contributingtothese  very  different distributions is that, if  current  levels of interest and voting intentions persist,turnout is likely to be far higher among Republicans than Democratsand No Party Preference voters. And,since nearly all Republicans favorNewsom’s ouster, a larger proportion of likely voters are voting Yes.

Thehigher GOP turnout is  being  driven  by several  factors. First, Republicans express far greater interest in votingin the recall election than Democrats or No Party Preference voters.  Second,there isa widespread expectation among Democrats and No Party Preference voters that Newsom will defeat the recall which may be fostering greater complacency among recall opponents  than  among  supporters. Third, voters  in  most  jurisdictions  will  see  only  two questions on the recall ballot, the Yes/No vote on the Governor’s recall and who should replace Newsom if he were tobe recalled.  The very limited nature of the two-question ballot contrasts with other statewide elections in which voters are drawn to the polls by numerous state and local  candidate  and  proposition  races. And,when coupled  with  the fact that many more Democrats than  Republicans reportnot  intending  to  cast a  vote onthe question  of  the Governor’s  replacement due  to an absence  ofwell-known  Democratic candidates,this  also appears to be giving GOP voters a greater incentive to participate.

 Observed  IGS  co-director  Eric  Schickler,  “These  results  make  plain  that  the  big  question surrounding  the  recall  will  be  whether  the  Newsom  campaign and  Democratic  activists  are able to get Democratic voters more engaged and interested in voting in September.”
The  poll  also  finds that  Republican broadcaster  Larry  Elder currently leads in  the race  to replace Newsom should the Governor be recalled, although a large 40% of likely voters remain undecided. When presented  with  a  long  list  of  the  candidates  running  in  the  replacement election, Elder is the choice of 18%, followed by fellow Republicans John Cox (10%), Kevin Faulconer(10%),  and  Kevin  Kiley  (5%).  Democrat Kevin  Paffrath  and  Republican  Caitlyn Jenner each receive 3% of the votein this setting.