Trump DOJ Going After Newsom

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments.  Just as an authoritarian regime would, it is abusing the legal process to punish opponents.

Melanie Mason and Dustin Gardiner at POLITICO:

Gavin Newsom is seizing on the political upside of his newly elevated place on Donald Trump’s enemies list.

The California governor mounted an aggressive response to revelations that he is facing multiple investigations by the Trump Justice Department — breaking the news in a video that also bluntly acknowledged his likely presidential ambitions, rallying Democratic allies to his side, and sending out a fundraising appeal within hours.

The defiant posture gave Newsom the chance to disclose the probes on his own terms — and bask in being lifted, once again, to the role of president’s chief antagonist.

“Persecution by Trump — or even prosecution by his weaponized Department of Justice — is a badge of honor to Democrats, kind of like the political version of a Purple Heart,” said Garry South, a veteran Democratic strategist who’s worked with Newsom on past campaigns. “The idiot has already made a martyr, and national figure, out of Newsom by attacking him and calling him childish names. So, of course this revelation will just add to Newsom’s standing as a 2028 presidential candidate.”

The probes echoed those of California Sen. Adam Schiff, New York Attorney General Letitia James and former FBI director James Comey: Democrats whose feuds with Trump escalated from social media spats to DOJ targets. So far, the retribution campaign has resulted in embarrassing setbacks for the administration instead of successful prosecutions — and has lifted those in Trump’s crosshairs to folk hero status among the Democratic base.

Newsom’s team is hoping he will enjoy a similar boost. Already, the governor’s pugnacious posture toward Trump during last year’s immigration crackdown in Los Angeles and his prescient foray into the redistricting wars sent his approval numbers soaring and landed him among the top contenders in early 2028 polls.

Anti-Newsom Oppo Starts

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  We are already in the very early stages of the 2028 campaign.

 Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein at Axios:

Gavin Newsom's Democratic rivals are plotting how to take down the early 2028 frontrunner, with a heavy emphasis on how unpopular his left-leaning views are outside deep-blue California.

Driving the news: Our conversations with more than 20 Democratic operatives, including several working for 2028 hopefuls, reveal that they see the California governor as the guy to beat — and a guy with a lot of personal baggage that's exploitable for a presidential primary.

The consensus themes to expect in attacks on Newsom:The "too liberal, coastal elite" argument. If primary voters prioritize electability, Newsom — a former San Francisco mayor — could be seen as a risky choice, the operatives say.

Newsom has defended providing health care for undocumented immigrants because he supports universal health care — a mainstream position in the 2020 Democratic primary some Democrats have since abandoned.

Affordability, housing and homelessness remain big problems in California, despite Newsom initiatives as mayor and governor.

The wealthy Getty family has been a key backer of Newsom's political and business career, leading some of his foes in California to call him a slick "Davos Democrat."
...

Zoom in: Some of Newsom's potential rivals and other Democratic leaders have begun going public with attacks.California Rep. Ro Khanna, referring to Newsom's former chief of staff recently being charged with corruption, said the aide's indictment is a "toxic stain" on the state.

A Good Week for Gavin Newsom

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is on an ominous course.  In the Anchorage summit, Trump literally rolled out the red carpet for Putin and got nothing. In California, Democrats have drafted their countermander.

 

🚨🚨 The final draft map from the California state legislature is now public.

Our partisanship index (2024/2020 presidential results composite) shows:
🔵 48 Democratic seats (+5)
🔴 4 Republican seats (-5) pic.twitter.com/StPeUKEk6V

— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) August 16, 2025

TRUMP JUST FLED THE PODIUM WITH PUTIN — NO QUESTIONS, NOTHING! TOTAL LOW ENERGY. THE MAN LOOKED LIKE HE’D JUST EATEN 3 BUCKETS OF KFC WITH VLAD. IS HE AFRAID THE PRESS WILL ASK ABOUT ME??? (AMERICA’S FAVORITE GOVERNOR) AND THE FACT I "STOLE THE CAMERAS" THIS WEEK WITH “THE MAPS”?…

— Governor Newsom Press Office (@GovPressOffice) August 15, 2025

By Pure Coincidence, Masked Agents Show Up Outside Newsom Event

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is on an ominous course.  Sending masked agents to an opponent's event is an authoritarian move.

 Connor Sheets, Brittny Mejia and Julia Wick at LAT:

As Gov. Gavin Newsom prepared to announce that he would take on President Trump’s redistricting plans on behalf of California, scores of federal immigration agents massed outside the venue Thursday.

Newsom was set to speak at the Japanese American National Museum in downtown Los Angeles, when Border Patrol Sector Chief Gregory Bovino, who has been leading the immigration operations in California, arrived in Little Tokyo, flanked by agents in helmets, camouflage, masks and holding guns.

“We’re here making Los Angeles a safer place since we won’t have politicians that’ll do that, we do that ourselves,” Bovino told a Fox 11 reporter in Little Tokyo. “We’re glad to be here, we’re not going anywhere.”

When the reporter noted that Newsom was nearby, Bovino responded, “I don’t know where he’s at.”

Newsom’s office took to X to share that agents were outside, posting: “BORDER PATROL HAS SHOWED UP AT OUR BIG BEAUTIFUL PRESS CONFERENCE! WE WILL NOT BE INTIMIDATED!”

California Counter-Gerrymander?

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Trump is pressing Texas to do a mid-decade gerrymander.  Newsom is threatening to strike back.  Mark Z. Barabak:

As part of a recent Southern campaign swing, Gavin Newsom sat down with a progressive Tennessee podcaster to discuss the Republican power grab. (The picnic bench, rolled up shirt sleeves, beer and f-bomb showed the governor was being authentic, in case there was any doubt.)

“They’re not f— around now. They’re playing by a totally different set of rules,” Newsom said of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and his fellow Republicans. Years ago, he noted, California created an independent commission to draw its political lines, which states normally do once a decade after new census figures come out.

But with a super-majority in Sacramento, Newsom said, Democrats could “gerrymander like no other state.”

“We’ve been playing fair,” he continued, but Abbott’s actions “made me question that entire program.” Later, elaborating on social media, the governor accused Republicans of cheating their way to extra House seats and warned, “California is watching — and you can bet we won’t stand idly by.”

There’s a Texas expression for that: All hat and no cattle.

The fact is, voters took the power of political line-drawing away from the governor and his fellow lawmakers, for good reason, and it’s not like Newsom can unilaterally take that power back — no matter how well his chesty swagger might play with Trump-loathing Democrats.

...

[Democrats] could break the law and pass legislation drawing new lines, face an inevitable lawsuit and prevail with a sympathetic ruling from the California Supreme Court. Or they could ask voters to approve different lines through a new constitutional amendment, in a hurried-up special election ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Both scenarios seem as plausible as Newsom delivering universal healthcare and fulfilling his pledge to build 3.5 million new homes a year, to name two other extravagant promises.

Vance Slimes LA

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. 

Salvador Hernandez, Seema Mehta, and Christopher Buchanan at LAT:

“What happened here was a tragedy,” Vance told reporters. “You had people who were doing the simple job of enforcing the law, and you had rioters, egged on by the governor and the mayor, making it harder for them to do their job.”

Although Newsom and Bass have criticized the immigration raids, which led to protests and sporadic violent attacks against law enforcement officials, both have repeatedly urged demonstrators to remain peaceful.

Bass, who was not invited to meet with Vance, dismissed his description of what has unfolded in Los Angeles over the last two weeks.

“Unfortunately, the vice president did not take time to learn about our city and understand that our city is a city of immigrants from every country and continent on the planet,” Bass said at a news conference Friday evening. “But then again, he did need to justify the hundreds of millions of wasted taxpayer dollars that were wasted in the performance of a stunt.

“How dare you say that city officials encourage violence,” Bass said. “We kept the peace.”

Newsom weighed in repeatedly on the social media platform X, notably about Vance calling Sen. Alex Padilla “Jose” during his remarks.

Padilla was dragged to the ground by federal law enforcement officers and briefly detained when he attempted to ask U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem a question during a news conference earlier this week.

“I was hoping Jose Padilla would be here to ask a question, but unfortunately I guess he decided not to show up because there wasn’t a theater, and that’s all it is,” Vance said.

A spokesperson for Padilla responded that Vance, as a former colleague of Padilla in the U.S. Senate, “knows better.”

“He should be more focused on demilitarizing our city than taking cheap shots,” spokesperson Tess Oswald posted on X. “Another unserious comment from an unserious administration.”

Newsom v. Trump

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

Trump likes riots.  He federalized National Guard units and sent them to Los Angeles, hoping to escalate the disorder.  He got his wish.

JACK BLANCHARD with DASHA BURNS  at POLITICO:

Let’s be clear: These are precisely the sorts of scenes — U.S. troops assisting with immigration raids in liberal cities — that Dems have feared since Trump’s election. They are also precisely the target of California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s request for an emergency injunction against the way Trump is deploying military force in his state, per POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein. District Judge Charles Breyer — the Bill Clinton-appointed brother of former Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer — will hear that case tomorrow. It could be quite a moment.

We need to talk about Gavin: Newsom, for his part, delivered a pretty extraordinary address to the nation last night, in which he sought to position himself as the leader of America’s anti-Trump opposition. Speaking directly to camera in a crisp, eight-minute monologue, Newsom denounced Trump’s aggressive deployment of ICE officers and military forces in LA — before raising his eyes to horizons far beyond his own state.

“This isn’t just about protests here in Los Angeles,” Newsom told America. “This is about all of us. This is about you. California may be first, but it clearly will not end here. Other states are next. Democracy is next. Democracy is under assault before our eyes.”

Going viral: The video is getting plenty of love from Dems online — hitting more than a million views on the MeidasTouch YouTube channel inside three hours last night. And it was on the front pages of both the NYT and WaPo early this morning. “I for one am very happy to see somebody that isn’t afraid to speak up,” Ana Navarro told CNN. “I have been so thirsty for somebody that is not cowardly, bending the knee and selling out to Donald Trump as he does all of this to America.” Even the WSJ describes Newsom as “the leader of the opposition.”

This is all fascinating stuff for kremlinologists of the fledgling 2028 Democratic race. Playbook noted yesterday that politicians aligning themselves with anti-ICE protesters may be taking on political risk come a general election, but Newsom is playing a different game right now — and playing it well. He even leaned into Trump’s threat to have him arrested, spying the same political opportunity enjoyed by Trump himself in 2023. (POLITICO’s Jeremy White and Melanie Mason take a closer look at Newsom’s leadership prospects here.)

DTLA

 Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

Trump likes riots.  He federalized National Guard units and sent them to Los Angeles, hoping to escalate the disorder.  He got his wish.

Politico Playbook:

The scenes everyone will be talking about this morning … Masked protesters pose for photos with Mexican flags in front of a burning vehicle in downtown LA … A law enforcement official shoots an Australian journalist with non-lethal ammo, the moment captured on her own rolling news camera … Protesters pelt stranded police vehicles with e-scooters and rocks from an occupied freeway bridge … A shirtless van driver attempts to reverse-ram rioters at spinning high speeds before racing off into the night … (Second vid here from ground level).

...

For Trump, this is simply a fight he has been waiting for. The president was under no illusions about the protests that would eventually meet his deportation strategy, nor in any doubt about how he would respond when the moment came. And Saturday’s historic decision to send in the National Guard may only be the start; last night Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put 500 Marines on standby for deployment.

And then … this: “Looking really bad in L.A.,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, shortly after midnight. “BRING IN THE TROOPS!!!” Helping Trump’s cause were comments from the LAPD that the situation has spiraled “out of control” (though Newsom is blaming Trump himself for that.) It’s worth noting that Trump has not ruled out invoking the 1807 Insurrection Act — which gives authority for a president to deploy the U.S. military on the streets — though he told reporters yesterday afternoon that he did not believe the current situation meets that bar.

This is diving-line politics, and Trump thinks he is on the winning side. The president knows Democrats will stand in opposition to his every move in L.A, but believes the popularity of his immigration policies means he has enough of the public on his side. And for these protests to have escalated so rapidly into televised riots makes the ideal backdrop for the White House’s messaging; they want the president standing up for law and order, and the deluded Dems on the side of flag-waving rioters. The fact it all came just as Trump faced one of the toughest news cycles of his presidency is just … a delicious bonus. Elon who?

But for Newsom, there’s a big opportunity too — to stand up to a bullying opponent on behalf of his home state, while playing to the broader Democratic base ahead of 2028. It was striking to see Newsom invite the Dem-friendly MSNBC cameras right inside his situation room last night to stick it to Trump directly, even as the violence on the streets continued. “Donald Trump needs to pull back,” Newsom told viewers sternly. “He needs to stand down. Donald Trump is inflaming these conditions.”

And there’s more: There were even echoes of the WWE locker room when Newsom was told that border czar Tom Homan has not ruled out arresting California’s leaders if they obstruct federal law enforcement. “He’s a tough guy. Why doesn’t he do that?” Newsom shot back. “He knows where to find me.” Addressing Homan directly, he added: “Lay your hands off four-year-old girls who are trying to get an education … Come after me. Arrest me. Let’s just get it over with, tough guy.” Reminder: these people are meant to be the grown-ups.

Trump v. California

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

The federal government is taking over the California National Guard and deploying 2,000 soldiers in Los Angeles — not because there is a shortage of law enforcement, but because they want a spectacle.

Don't give them one.

Never use violence. Speak out peacefully.

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 8, 2025

The Secretary of Defense is now threatening to deploy active-duty Marines on American soil against its own citizens.

This is deranged behavior.

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 8, 2025

AOC and Newsom Get Attention

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.  With the GOP in total control of the federal government, Democrats are figuring out how to respond.

Amie Parnes at The Hill:

When California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) launched his podcast last week, his comments on transgender athletes made headlines.

Republicans used it to mock how far left Democrats have become. And the podcast, aptly named “This is Gavin Newsom,” also sparked backlash from Democrats.

But the point is, it got some attention — and that’s exactly what Democrats are seeking to do on the heels of their loss in November.

Since then, Democrats have been trying to reclaim the political conversation, anxious to reconnect with voters not just behind a podium or in social media posts. They’re “creating moments,” as one strategist put it, in other ways.

While Newsom, widely seen as a presidential contender for 2028, launched a podcast, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is hitting the road in the coming weeks alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). The duo is expected to speak not just to Democrats but Republicans as well.

Democratic operatives familiar with the matter say they expect other lawmakers to hit the road in blue states, purple states and even red states in an effort to leave the Beltway parlance behind them and speak face-to-face with voters.

Danger for Dems in CA

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.   Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

California is in bad shape. The wildfires are just the latest in a series of problems that threaten the reigning Democrats.

 Zachary Basu at Axios:

The big picture: Musk's bluster aside, Democrats acknowledge they face serious challenges in California that predate the fires — and that their supermajority in the legislature makes it difficult to blame Republicans.

Crime, homelessness, illegal immigration, high prices and an intractable housing crisis helped Trump increase his vote share in 45 of California's 58 counties in 2024.

In Los Angeles County — which shifted an astonishing 11 points to the right — a progressive district attorney was defeated by a former Republican who vowed to crack down on crime.

California voters overwhelmingly passed a ballot measure, Prop 36, to increase penalties for drug and theft crimes, and recalled Oakland's mayor and local district attorney over public safety issues.

Reality check: The main beneficiaries of California's backlash have been independents and moderate Democrats — not Republicans, and certainly not the strain of MAGA Republicans publicly agitating for a revolution.Most Californians believe climate change is contributing to the fires, even if they're unhappy with state leadership's handling of the crisis.

House Republicans' threat to condition federal aid to California, meanwhile, risks public blowback at a moment of vulnerability for Democrats.

What to watch: Republicans today are flush with billionaire cash and influence, much of it concentrated in Silicon Valley, Hollywood and other parts of California where supporting Trump is no longer taboo. Flipping the state is still a "long-term project," as pro-Trump activist Charlie Kirk put it last month — but one that could be accelerated by this type of systemic shock.

"We don't see these shifts overnight," California Assembly Republican leader James Gallagher said in a local news interview. "Texas was once a blue state, and slowly but surely it became a red state."

Poop

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  The 2024 race has begun.  The DeSantis campaign has been troubled. 

Rachel Sharp at The Independent:

Ron DeSantis left viewers baffled – and grimacing – in a particularly bizarre moment during his fiery debate with Gavin Newsom.

The Florida governor came face to face with the California governor on Fox News on Thursday night in what appeared to be a practice session for an unlikely presidential debate, where the two men sparred over Covid-19, the 2024 race and LGBT+ rights.


But there was one moment in particular that got viewers talking, when Mr DeSantis curiously brandished a so-called “poop map” showing apparent dump sites across the city of San Francisco.

He has a poop map. https://t.co/ImNvLP7bhT

— Devin Nunes’ cow 🐮 (@DevinCow) December 1, 2023

The DeSantis Case Against California

Our book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

California Gov. Gavin Newsom will debate Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Fox News at 6 pm Pacific (9 pm Eastern). “DeSantis vs. Newsom: The Great Red vs. Blue State Debate,” will be 90 minutes long. DeSantis will probably say:

• People are voting with their feet. Between 2020 and 2022, the Census reports, California had a net population loss of 508,903.  Florida had a net population gain of 706,597
• When the Census takes housing costs into account, California has the highest poverty rate of the 50 states, at 13.2 percent.  Newsom will reply that Florida is close behind at 12.7 percent and by the standard poverty measure has a higher rate (13.1 percent v. 11.4 percent.).  See the Census poverty report at page 47.
• California's homeless rate is much higher: 44 per 10,000  v. Florida's 12 per 10,000.
• In October 2023, Florida's unemployment rate was 2.8 percent.  California's was 4.8 percent.  Of the 50 states, only Nevada had higher unemployment.
• In 2022, California had a higher rate of reported crime (499.5 per 100,000) than Florida (258.9 per 100,000).
• The Tax Foundation’s State Business Tax Climate Index ranks Florida in 4th place among the 50 states. California ranks 48th.
• When Consumer Affairs ranked states by the condition of their roads, California was the fourth-worst, while Florida was the seventh-best.
• On education, US News ranks Florida number one.  California is in 20th place.

Why Is Newsom Campaigning In Red States? [Answer: Obama 2008]

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. California Governor Gavin Newsom spent much of 2022 trying to raise his profile outside the state. The effort continues.

Hannah Wiley at LAT:

Saturday’s swing through Idaho didn’t just energize Biden’s much-neglected base in such a conservative corner of the West. It helped build a future one for Newsom.

... 

The visit to Idaho, which kicked off Newsom’s second tour through red states over the past few months, was all about shoring up enthusiasm for Biden’s accomplishments and touting party accomplishments, while showering beleaguered local Democrats with some love, attention and a little campaign cash from his political action committee Campaign for Democracy.

Newsom cut the Idaho Democratic Party a $10,000 check for the event, the maximum allowed; it’s a sliver of the more than $3 million he’s funneled to Biden and Democrats in Republican-run states such as Florida, Tennessee and Mississippi over the last three months. This week, he’ll have private meetings with Democrats in Montana during an annual family Fourth of July vacation, with a stop later in Utah.

The swing through Republican-led states gives Newsom the chance to remind local Democrats how critical they are in fighting back against what he described as a GOP-led “rights regression.”

Why is he campaigning in red states that would never support him in a general election?  The answer:  they send delegates to the Democratic national convention.  In 2008, as we explain in Epic Journey Obama showed that campaigning in otherwise-neglected red states could be a cost-effective way of building up a delegate lead.

Abortion Politics One Year After Dobbs

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. Abortion was a big issue in the 2022 midterm. It will probably be a big issue in 2024.

Steven Shepard at Politico:

The boost Democrats received from the abortion issue from last year’s midterm elections through downballot races so far in 2023 has been well documented. And the latest round of polling shows that momentum continues.

In addition to holding the majority, supporters of abortion rights are more motivated by the issue than opponents — a major shift from before Dobbs. According to Gallup, 33 percent of voters who identify as “pro-choice” say they would only support a candidate for office who agreed with their position, while just 23 percent of “pro-life” voters say the same thing.

And because there are more “pro-choice” voters than “pro-life” ones, the numbers break out like this: 17 percent of the total electorate is composed of “pro-choice” voters who would only support candidates who favor abortion rights, while 10 percent of all voters are “pro-life” and would only vote for abortion-rights opponents.

Dating back to 1996, abortion-centric “pro-life” voters outnumbered “pro-choice” ones in every Gallup poll until 2022, and there’s been no change since that first flipped last May.

A new Monmouth poll out this week underscores how fundamental abortion rights have become for Democrats. Among all Americans, abortion and women’s rights (19 percent) ranked third behind freedom of speech (26 percent) and gun rights (21 percent) when asked about the specific types of rights they worry about losing. But for Democrats, abortion and women’s rights (36 percent) was far and away the rights they see as most under threat, easily ahead of freedom of speech (14 percent) and voting rights (12 percent).

Jeremy White et al. at Politico:

Through it all, few have been more aggressive than Newsom in forcing the issue and inserting California into state-level standoffs. In the months after decrying national Democrats’ anemic response, he bought billboards in red states advertising California as an abortion haven, moved to cut off Walgreens for succumbing to Republican pressure on abortion medication (The outcome was more complicated.) and responded to a Texas law authorizing payouts to people who sue abortion providers by pushing a California version for guns, hoping to force a legal reckoning.

Abortion access may be settled law in the state Newsom leads, but he always has an eye on the bigger picture. The governor has raised money for President Joe Biden and his own PAC by lambasting Republicans like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on abortion restrictions. When a Texas judge blocked approval of an abortion drug, Newsom let his donors know California was stockpiling pills — and asked for $20 to “fight back everywhere rights are under attack.”

Rachel Bade at Politico:

Former President Donald Trump avoids talking about the matter almost entirely. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban in the middle of the night in April, and has barely spoken about it since. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) originally waffled on whether he’d support a nationwide abortion ban. And former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has been vague about how she’d handle the issue as president.

Then there’s former Vice President Mike Pence.

More than any other Republican candidate, the former vice president has staked his pitch to voters on his unabashed “pro-life” stance.

While some Republicans — including Trump and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — say that in a post-Roe America, abortion policy should be left up to the states, Pence has endorsed a nationwide ban on the medical procedure at 15 weeks of gestation.

While some Republicans say the party shouldn’t weigh in on banning widely used abortion drugs, Pence’s 501(c)(4) group Advancing American Freedom has filed an amicus brief supporting a challenge to the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, the most widely used abortion pill in the country.

Newsom on Hannity

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

California Governor Gavin Newsom spent much of 2022 trying to raise his profile outside the state. The effort continues.

 

Here is a fact that the @GOP doesn't want you to know:@POTUS has created more jobs than the last 3 Republican presidents COMBINED. pic.twitter.com/YGQw38HVkF

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 13, 2023

Replacing Feinstein

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

 At AP, Michael Blood reports on the possibility that Governor Newsom might have to name a replacement for ailing Senator Dianne Feinstein:

When California Sen. Kamala Harris resigned to become vice president, Newsom faced pressure from both Black, Latino and other groups over a replacement pick. Some felt that he should replace Harris, the only Black woman in the U.S. Senate, with another Black woman. But others thought it was past time for California to have its first Latino senator, and Newsom chose then-Secretary of State Alex Padilla for the job.

But he later promised that if Feinstein’s seat became vacant, he would choose a Black woman to replace her. Should Feinstein step aside, he’ll be expected to make good on the promise.

“He made the commitment and I do not believe there is any wiggle room for the governor not to honor his commitment,” said Kerman Maddox, a Los Angeles-based Democratic strategist and fundraiser who is Black.

“Newsom must honor his promise to appoint a Black woman” if Feinstein resigns, said Democratic Assemblymember Lori Wilson, who heads the Legislative Black Caucus in Sacramento. “I trust him at his word. We currently have zero Black women in the Senate, so if the opportunity becomes available the governor must act to help remedy this lack of representation.”

Claremont McKenna College political scientist Jack Pitney pointed out that any presidential ambitions that Newsom might harbor would be damaged if he backed away from his promise to name a Black woman, noting that the candidate favored by Black voters has won the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination for every cycle since 1992.

“The last thing you want to do if you are thinking about running for president is alienating the nominating wing of the Democratic Party,” Pitney said.

THE SUPPORTING SURVEY DATA. 

Newsom Won But Screwed Up

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

California Governor Gavin Newsom spent much of 2022 trying to raise his profile outside the state.

Big mistake. 

Nate Moore, Ruy Teixeira, & Karlyn Bowman at AEI:

Newsom failed to match Biden’s 2020 margin in every one of California’s 58 counties. The pro-Republican swing exceeded 10 points in 44 counties and 15 points in 17 counties. Nine counties that supported Biden in 2022 voted for Republican Brian Dahle this year. Though apparent across the state, Newsom’s struggles were primarily concentrated in the majority Hispanic areas of the Central Valley. Of the 15 counties with the largest rightward shifts, nine are majority Hispanic. The heart of the Central Valley—Tulare, Kings, Kern, Madera, and Merced Counties—swung 18 points towards Republicans.

These Central Valley counties are also well below the state average in educational attainment. Though 34.7 percent of Californians have college degrees, fewer than 15 percent of Kings, Merced, and Tulare residents do. As education polarization continues to grow, the large Republican gains in these counties is not surprising. Highly educated counties, like Marin and San Mateo Counties in the San Francisco suburbs, shifted right by far less and remain safely in Democratic hands.

California Democrats’ struggles, especially in the aforementioned counties, can be ascribed to poor mobilization and failed persuasion. Newsom, who was a surefire bet for reelection, declined to campaign. His website did not include a platform and the sole debate with his Republican opponent came on a Sunday afternoon chock full of primetime football. His considerable campaign war chest went towards running ads in Texas and Florida—thousands of miles from his own constituents. This top-of-the-ticket complacency likely tanked Democratic turnout. Newsom, of course, still comfortably won reelection, but down-ballot Democrats suffered.

Democrats came up short in six competitive House seats across California. Each seat was eminently winnable: Biden carried five of six, including three by double digits. In the 22nd District (Biden +13), Republican David Valadao survived by four points. Though Valadao’s vote to impeach Trump certainly helped him in the blue-leaning district, astoundingly low Democratic turnout in majority-Hispanic counties carried him to victory. While California hit 61.5 percent of 2020 turnout, the 22nd District cast only 53.6 percent of its 2020 total. In the 13th District (Biden +11), turnout reached just 57.6 percent of 2020. Republican John Duarte is poised to win by less than half a point. In northern Los Angeles County, Republican Mike Garcia defeated Democrat Christy Smith (for the third time)—again aided by low turnout.

Newsom v. DeSantis

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

Steve Contorno at CNN:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is sending money across the country to help Rep. Charlie Crist defeat Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis this November.

The California Democrat on Thursday tweeted that he was pledging $100,000 to make DeSantis a “one-term governor” and he called on his supporters to donate to Crist, who won the Democratic nomination to be Florida’s governor on Tuesday.

Asked about the donation during a Los Angeles event, Newsom said he was compelled to donate to Crist because “I don’t like bullies.” Newsom pointed to DeSantis’ verbal assault of Dr. Anthony Fauci at a rally Wednesday, during which the Republican leader said of the country’s top infectious disease expert, “Someone needs to grab that little elf and chuck him across the Potomac.”

 

Yesterday, Charlie Crist told Floridians he doesn't want our votes. Today, Charlie Crist thanked the governor of the failed state of California for his money. Priorities!

Join us on a tour of Gavin Newsom's Dystopia-by-the-Sea to learn why we say "Don't California My Florida"... pic.twitter.com/tZyPSrqsQD

— DeSantis War Room (@DeSantisWarRoom) August 25, 2022

California Primary

Our book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

Politico CA Playbook:

San Francisco renounced their district attorney, Republican affiliation still matters, GOP House incumbents are exhaling, and we’re headed for an epic Los Angeles faceoff.

Two early race calls set the tone for last night’s primary. First we learned that Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle would advance to a November runoff with Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, leaving independent Michael Shellenberger in the also-ran rack. And then the expected earthquake as San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin was recalled, succumbing to a confluence of crime concerns and massive opposition spending.

Boudin’s ouster was not exactly a surprise. The polls all augured his defeat as San Francicans developed buyers’ remorse after elevating the former public defender in 2019 — a rejection encouraged by a deep-pocketed coalition of tech and real estate interests. His loss is a blow to the national progressive prosecution movement, although an undiminished Boudin told supporters in a fiery speech that “the movement that got us elected in 2019 is alive and well.” Now San francisco Mayor London Breed gets to select a replacement — potentially a long-term one as voters were rejecting a measure barring her pick from seeking re-election.

Nor should Dahle’s victory have shocked you. Since Republicans’ long trudge through the statewide-office-less wilderness began, campaigns regularly contemplate a no-party-preference option as a more viable pick. But California’s five-million-plus Republicans often have other ideas. So it went in the attorney general’s race, where NPP Sacramento District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert was running a distant third behind two Republicans: lead challenger and former U.S. Attorney Nathan Hochman, followed by attorney Eric Early. Gamesmanship by incumbent AG Rob Bonta and allies may have failed to elevate the preferred Early to November.

Speaking of Republicans: frontline Reps. Young Kim and David Valadao had reason to be nervous heading into last night. Both were facing surprisingly stiff Republican challenges (remember, Valadao was the only CA House Republican to vote for former President Donald Trump’s impeachment) that threatened to upend the party’s plans. But Kim and Valadao were leading their GOP rivals as early returns flowed in — although it’s still early, and Valadao's lead was slimmer.

Fact: Having NPP next to your name is a killer in June. Having an R next to your name is a killer in November. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

— Steven Maviglio 🇮🇹🇺🇦🇺🇸 (@stevenmaviglio) June 8, 2022

A fresh case study for critics of top two (though there is still a chance that the late-counted vote could put former Rep. George Radanovich into contention)

 

Oops. Are Republicans in CA State Senate District 4 getting boxed out of a seat with a 4-pt Rep registration advantage that voted for both Cox in ‘18 and Trump in ‘16 and ‘20. The top two so far are both Democrats. Best of the rest is George Radanivich at 17%. pic.twitter.com/IIKKXpGowj

— CA120 (@CA_120) June 8, 2022

CA’s idiotic jungle primary law strikes again. Senate District 4 is a plurality Republican district. So naturally, voters will get the “choice” of electing a Democrat…or a Democrat; even though 56% of voters in the primary supported a Republican. https://t.co/HEQ65qeYbq

— Ron Nehring (@RonNehring) June 8, 2022