Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.
As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 - 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.
In Quinnipiac University's December 20, 2023 poll, the same hypothetical 2024 general election matchup was 'too close to call' as President Biden received 47 percent support and former President Trump received 46 percent support.
In today's poll, Democrats (96 - 2 percent) and independents (52 - 40 percent) support Biden, while Republicans (91 - 7 percent) support Trump.
Under any scenario, the upcoming presidential election will be close. If the economy continues to perform well as we anticipate and voter turnout and third-party vote share remain close to their recent historical norms, President Biden should win re-election. But these are big assumptions in a highly uncertain economic time and given our highly fractured and contentious politics. We will update the results of our model each month up through Election Day based on incoming economic data and the latest economic outlook. These updates, as well as more in-depth analysis on individual swing states and counties and the implications for fiscal policy, will be available in coming months.
Consumer confidence is surging according to @Conferenceboard.— Mark Mellman (@MarkMellman) January 31, 2024
If this continues we should see @potus @JoeBiden’s numbers improve too
Consumer confidence was “highest since December 2021 and marked the third straight monthly increase” pic.twitter.com/NT2qkYF2Ji