Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Katie Porter—long considered a frontrunner in the race to succeed Gavin Newsom as California’s next governor—is seeing her chances plummet in betting markets, according to new data.Melanie Mason, Jeremy B. White and Blake Jones at Politico:
Betting platform Kalshi shows that Porter's chances of becoming governor in 2026 have plummeted in the last day from 40 percent to 18 percent.
Meanwhile, Senator Alex Padilla has overtaken Porter with a 26 percent chance, up from a 10 percent chance on October 8. Padilla has not yet announced that he is running for California governor, but he is reportedly weighing up a bid. Former Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has a 10 percent chance, up from 6 percent, according to the platform.
Katie Porter’s “unhappy experience” in a viral interview has become the news cycle from hell.
The bipartisan pile-on following the widely-circulated clip of her contentious sit-down with a local CBS news affiliate was only hours old when a new video surfaced from POLITICO of the former House member berating a staffer in 2021 — the two clips fueling long-simmering concerns about her temperament and judgment.
Together, they suddenly boiled over into the broader political zeitgeist, raising questions about just how durable Porter’s lead in California’s gubernatorial race really is.
“Is this a disaster? Yes,” said Gale Kaufman, a veteran Democratic strategist based in Sacramento. “And the reason it’s a disaster is because it amplifies what her reputation already is.”
Porter’s Democratic rivals, smelling blood in the water, quickly seized on the former congresswoman’s wince-worthy television appearance. Antonio Villaraigosa took the unusual step of purchasing three-minute ads in the Sacramento market to run the entirety of Porter’s tense exchange with CBS reporter Julie Watts. Stephen J. Cloobeck released a digital ad knocking Porter for past inflammatory comments. Xavier Becerra and Tony Thurmond highlighted their own, less-incendiary, responses to Watts’ questions. And Betty Yee called on Porter to drop out.
