Robo-Gerrymander

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Bruce Mehlman:

Researchers were using high-performance computing and big data to discover new materials and analyze proteins before AI… but AI massively accelerated & improved such data-intensive efforts. Gerrymandering dates to 1812 in the U.S. Party strategists have been leveraging voter data and computing to draw advantageous maps for decades. AI promises gerrymandering on steroids — weapons of mass division in the 2025 redistricting wars — with powerful AI models able to (1) precisely-sift unprecedented amounts and unprecedentedly-personal data, (2) compare unlimited potential maps to optimize outcomes. But while AI-enabled cramming could reduce the paltry 20% of seats that are currently competitive, AI-drawn maps might also create more competitive seats by shifting voters out of safer seats (where risk-averse incumbent politicians often prefer them).

The Parties in Mid-2025

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Aaron Zitner at WSJ:

The Democratic Party’s image has eroded to its lowest point in more than three decades, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll, with voters seeing Republicans as better at handling most issues that decide elections.

The new survey finds that 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party—the highest share in Journal polls dating to 1990 and 30 percentage points higher than the 33% who hold a favorable view.

That is a far weaker assessment than voters give to either President Trump or the Republican Party, who are viewed more unfavorably than favorably by 7 points and 11 points, respectively. A mere 8% of voters view the Democrats “very favorably,” compared with 19% who show that level of enthusiasm for the GOP.

BUT...

Bruce Mehlman:

.It may be “the economy stupid” for Presidential elections, but no economic indicator (consumer confidence, inflation, stock market returns) correlates consistently to midterm outcomes. What does correlate (high R2)? Presidential Approval. Midterms are referendums on the party in power, usually narrowing the mandate given at the last election. And absent >60% approval, the President’s party loses seats. Trump is currently at 44.6% approval. Advantage Democrats.

Partisan Gap in Presidential Approval

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is off to an ominous start.

 Bruce Mehlman:

The gap between approval of U.S. presidents by their own party vs approval by members of the other party has been growing for decades. New Gallup data this week make clear this trend persists, with 91% of Republicans approving Trump's job performance vs 4% of Democrats.

Narrow Majorities, Midterm Losses

Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Bruce Mehlman:

Are the GOP’s House Margins Too Narrow to Pass Trump’s Priorities. A number of Trump 2.0 priorities will require legislative action, especially if Courts reject executive unilateralism. Republicans have the smallest House majority since 1931. They will need Democratic votes to avert a shutdown, increase the debt ceiling and advance multiple other priorities both in the Senate and likely the House. Can Trump 2.0 realistically expect 100% GOP loyalty?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections End the GOP Trifecta? Four of the last five Presidents saw their parties lose control of the House in their first midterms, significantly slowing Administration progress. The party holding the White House lost seats in 18 of the 20 midterms since World War II, with the average loss 25 seats (chart). Such a big loss is highly unlikely in 2026, with the GOP only defending 3 seats won by Harris in 2024, while Democrats defend 13 Trump-won seats. Further the playing field is smaller than in past years: just 39 of 435 seats are rated toss-up or lean (22 Dem-defended, 17 GOP). But Democrats only need to net +3 to regain the House, and history suggests that’s eminently doable for the party out of power.

Mounting Discontent

 Bruce Mehlman:

Polling and HIstorical Data

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses election predictions.

Trump's static support:

2016 Election Result: 46.1%
2020 Election Result: 46.8%
2024 538 Polling Avg: 46.6% https://t.co/EN2POORRPz

— Nathan Gonzales (@nathanlgonzales) October 27, 2024

Bruce Mehlman:

Polling is an inexact science (though still better than a Ouija Board). Political polls in 2020 & 2016 consistently under-estimated support for President Trump, especially in the “Rust Belt” swing states of MI, WI & PA. Have they solved the challenges this time, over-corrected (as in 2022) or once again failed to measure a mighty MAGA army? (NYTimes)

History and Congressional Elections

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Bruce Mehlman:

Grover Cleveland in 1884 was the last newly-elected Democratic President to take office without Democrats also controlling the Senate. (Why this matters: There’s a decent chance Kamala Harris wins the White House while Republicans take the Senate, setting up confirmation crises & showdowns over debt ceiling, taxes & regulation.)

 The party winning the White House has gained 15 seats in the House over the past century, on average. (Why this matters: With a current GOP margin of just four, the party that wins the White House in 2024 probably also takes the House).