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Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Fake Weather

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's character and record of dishonesty. The update -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.

18 U.S. Code § 2074. False weather reports

Whoever knowingly issues or publishes any counterfeit weather forecast or warning of weather conditions falsely representing such forecast or warning to have been issued or published by the Weather Bureau, United States Signal Service, or other branch of the Government service, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ninety days, or both.
(June 25, 1948, ch. 645, 62 Stat. 795; Pub. L. 103–322, title XXXIII, § 330016(1)(G), Sept. 13, 1994, 108 Stat. 2147.)
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Pay to Stay

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's record of scandal. The update -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.

Maggie Haberman and Eric Lipton at NYT:
There was the hourlong motorcade to the airport in Shannon, where he arrived at 9:30 a.m. Then the flight to Dublin, where Air Force Two landed at 10:29 a.m., and finally a short drive to Aras an Uachtarain, the presidential residence, and his meet-and-greet with Mr. Higgins, which started at 11:11 a.m.
The lengthy commute was necessary because of Mr. Pence’s choice of hotel: Rather than spending Monday night in Dublin, the vice president stayed 181 miles away by car on the other side of Ireland — at the Trump International Golf Links & Hotel in Doonbeg.
The person who suggested he stay there was the hotel’s owner himself, President Trump.
“I don’t think it was a request, like a command,” Marc Short, Mr. Pence’s chief of staff, told reporters traveling with the vice president. “I think that it was a suggestion.”
...
Over all, at least 24 of the 32 individuals who have served in Mr. Trump’s cabinet and 26 of the 53 Republicans in the Senate have been spotted at or spent money at Trump International Hotel in Washington, according to a tally maintained by Zach Everson, who tracks visits to the hotel by foreign dignitaries, members of Congress and other Republicans.
“In a way it is business as normal,” said Mr. Everson, whose newsletter, called 1100 Pennsylvania, examines patronage by the politically connected at the hotel in Washington. “This is the way Republicans are supporting the president, by supporting his businesses.”

It's Mafia-speak. 
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Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Trump and Public Discourse

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's character and record of dishonesty. The update -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. Earlier this month, he told several Democratic congresswomen to "go back" to their countries. Then he attacked Elijah Cummings and his city of Baltimore and said that Jews who support Democrats are stupid or disloyal.

George C. Edwards,  "The Bully in the Pulpit: Donald Trump’s Public Discourse," 2019 APSA paper.

The conclusion:
Two days before taking the oath as a new U.S. senator, Mitt Romney published an op-ed in which he argued, “A president should demonstrate the essential qualities of honesty and integrity, and elevate the national discourse with comity and mutual respect. . . .  it is in this province where the incumbent’s shortfall has been most glaring.”[i]  The former Republican presidential candidate was correct.  Donald Trump’s public discourse has been characterized by making ad hominem attacks aimed at branding and delegitimizing critics and opponents, exaggerating threats or offering inappropriate reassurance, blurring the distinction between fact and fiction, stoking cultural divisions and racial and ethnic tensions, and challenging the rule of law.  This rhetoric was both consistent with his pre-presidential expressions and a clear deviation from the norms of the presidency. 
 Rather than being an asset for the president, his public discourse has diminished his ability to govern.  His rhetoric has not aided him in expanding his supportive coalition.  Incivility has not proven useful in attracting those not predisposed to support him, and he has not been able to brand policies effectively.  Nor has he convinced most people to distrust his critics, including the media, and he has not persuaded them with either his exaggerations or minimizing of threats.  His prevaricating has not won him additional adherents.  Instead, the public finds him untrustworthy and not someone to whom they should defer.  His public discourse and his playing to his base has brought him low and highly polarized approval ratings.  Most Americans considered his rhetoric to be divisive and polarizing.[ii]  In the end, Trump’s rhetoric has made it even more difficult to govern effectively.
  Equally important, there is reason to conclude that Trump’s discourse has been deleterious for American democracy.  His rhetoric has encouraged incivility in public discourse, accelerated the use of disinformation, legitimized the expression of prejudice and increasing the salience of cultural divisions and racial and ethnic tensions, and undermined democratic accountability.  Although most people reject both the tone and substance of the president’s rhetoric, many Republicans do not.  Especially for his co-partisans, he has distorted the public’s knowledge about politics and policy, warped their understanding of policy challenges, and chipped away at respect for the rule of law.


            [i] “The President Shapes the Public Character of the Nation. Trump’s Character Falls Short,” Washington Post, January 1, 2019.
            [ii] Scott Rasmussen poll, July 19-20, 2019.

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Monday, September 2, 2019

Incompetent, Indecisive, Intolerant, Ineffective

In Defying the Odds,we discuss Trump's approach to governing. The update --recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.

Philip Rucker and Ashley Parker at WP:
The two months between Independence Day and Labor Day offered a fresh and vivid portrait of the president as seen by Trump’s critics — incompetent, indecisive, intolerant and ineffective.

White House officials promote the summer of 2019 as one of historic achievement for Trump, offering up a list of more than two dozen accomplishments. But privately, many of the president’s advisers and outside allies bemoan what they consider to be a period of missed opportunity and self-sabotage.

In the final lull before the 2020 campaign starts to intensify this fall, Trump could have worked strategically to solidify his position and broaden his appeal. Instead, his words and actions this summer served to further divide the country and to harden public opinion about the ever-polarizing president.

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On the Anniversary of the Invasion of Poland

In Defying the Odds, we discuss foreign policy issues in the 2016 campaign. Our update takes the story through the 2018 election.

On September 1, 1939, Germany invaded Poland from the west.  Sixteen days later, the Soviet Union invaded from the east.

W.H. Auden:
I sit in one of the dives
On Fifty-second Street
Uncertain and afraid
As the clever hopes expire
Of a low dishonest decade:
Waves of anger and fear
Circulate over the bright
And darkened lands of the earth,
Obsessing our private lives;
The unmentionable odour of death
Offends the September night.
9/1/19 Press Gaggle:
Q Mr. President, do you have a message for Poland —

THE PRESIDENT: Yeah.

Q — on the 80th anniversary of the Second World War? What (inaudible)?

THE PRESIDENT: I do have a great message for Poland. And we have Mike Pence, our Vice President, is just about landing right now. And he is representing me. I look forward to being there soon.

But I just want to congratulate Poland. It’s a great country with great people. We also have many Polish people in our country; it could be 8 million. We love our Polish friends. And I will be there soon.
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Kayfabe, Trump and Fox

 In Defying the Odds, we discuss the role of the media, particularly conservative media.




Jack Shafer at Politico:
In the world of pro wrestling, “kayfabe” is the code of secrecy that demands all players stay in “character before, during, and after shows” to maintain the illusion that a real fight is happening. Trump’s trash talk and the raspberries that Fox functionaries like Hume and Cavuto blow back at him are pure kayfabe. As Media Matters for America’s Matt Gertz has noted, Trump so adores Fox that he’s peppered his administration with former Fox News staffers, and five of his former employees have moved on to jobs at Fox or its parent company. Just recently, former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, among the most loyal of all Trumpies, took a job as a Fox News contributor.
Trump’s faux-fight with Fox is designed 1) to add drama and excitement to where there is none; 2) make him the primary focus of events; and 3) temporarily complicate the storyline so viewers keep watching. Fox benefits from Trump’s periodic attacks (remember when he boycotted one of Fox’s 2016 presidential debates because it wouldn’t dump Megyn Kelly from the broadcast). They make the channel look like it’s standing up to the president, and Fox ends up looking more independent and credible.
It doesn’t get more kayfabe than that.
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Sunday, September 1, 2019

Conservative Media 2019

 In Defying the Odds, we discuss the role of the media, particularly conservative media.

Howard Polskin at the Columbia Journalism Review:
There are currently about 15 to 20 conservative websites which attract at least one million unique visitors per month. Some are venerable right-wing reliables like National Review, The Washington Times, or Newsmax. Others, like Infowars, The Gateway Pundit, Big League Politics, and Breitbart, mine the far fringes of the right.

The most significant change in the conservative media landscape has been the astonishing traffic growth of Foxnews.com, the digital arm of the most-watched cable news network. Its traffic has doubled since 2015 and is now at more than 100 million unique visitors per month, which represents nearly a third of the U.S. population.
 The Fox Corporation-owned website also generates ten times the audience of any other conservative news website offering original content...
Sara Fischer at Axios:
On television, Fox News continues to dominate virtually every metric, while other conservative TV groups are also broadening their reach...
...
Podcasts, meanwhile, have given rise to up-and-coming right-leaning personalities.
  • The Joe Rogan Experience, a talk podcast hosted by self-described libertarian Joe Rogan, is an example of a podcast that speaks to a broad group of people, particularly young men, from a slightly right-of-center voice. Rogan's podcast has been one of the most-downloaded podcasts on iTunes for two years, per The Atlantic.
  • The Ben Shapiro Show lags a few spots behind Rogan on the charts, which is hosted by conservative commentator and personality Ben Shapiro. He has built a mega-brand aimed at targeting younger conservatives, which also includes a website called The Daily Wire.
Between the lines: Even fringe right social network Gab is exploding, according to a new analysis by Vice. Vice attributes at least part of that growth to the slowdown of traffic to fringe website 8chan, which went offline several weeks ago.
The bottom line: Typically, the opposition party has a media explosion in response to whichever political group is in power. But the economic stress of the media industry, combined with the Trump-driven conservative strategy of broad messaging, has upended that dynamic.
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