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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Virginia Governor: Early Line

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II has an early lead over businessman Terry McAuliffe in their race for governor, a new Washington Post poll shows, even as most voters in the commonwealth have yet to engage in the nationally watched contest.
Six months before Election Day, Cuccinelli (R) has a slender 46 to 41 percent edge over McAuliffe (D) among all Virginia voters and a significant 51 to 41 percent lead among those who say they’re certain to cast ballots in November. But those numbers may change before then: The poll found that barely 10 percent say they are following the campaign “very closely” and that nearly half of the electorate says they’re either undecided or could change their minds.
In 2012, national black turnout may have exceeded white turnout.  But this level of enthusiasm might not carry over into future elections. The Post also looks at the African-American vote in the Virginia race:
When is nearly 70 percent support from a key voting bloc not good enough? When you’re a Virginia Democrat running statewide without President Obama atop the ballot.
As he seeks to reclaim the governorship for his party, businessman Terry McAuliffe isn’t drawing the same level of African American backing other Democrats have recently enjoyed, a new Washington Post poll shows.
McAuliffe is supported by 69 percent of black voters, compared with 10 percent for Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II (R). And 20 percent of black voters say they have no opinion or would vote for neither candidate. By contrast, Obama received 93 percent of black votes in Virginia last year, helping to compensate for the loss of the white vote to Mitt Romney (R) by 24 points.