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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Friday, February 2, 2018

Latest Data on 2018

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race

Nate Cohn at NYT:
Last month it seemed that Democrats might ride a giant tsunami to control of the House and Senate. Now, some are wondering whether there’s a Democratic wave at all.
The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot, which asks people whether they’ll vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress, has dwindled since the heart of the tax debate in December. Then, nearly all surveys put Republicans behind by double digits. Now, poll averages put the Democratic lead at only around six or seven percentage points.
The question isn’t really whether Republican standing has improved recently. It has. The question is whether anyone should care: Is it just one of many blips and bumps along the road, or does it say something meaningful about the midterm elections?
The short answer: Check back in a month.
Philip Bump at WP:
Rep. Trey Gowdy (S.C.) on Wednesday became the latest GOP member of the House to announce his decision not to run for reelection. He’s the 34th sitting Republican to do so, according to DailyKos’s trackerof open seats, and the 22nd whose decision to leave is not based on running for another office. (In Gowdy’s case, he’s aiming to enter the judiciary.)
As of this writing — and this seems to be changing with regularity — 17 percent of the seats with which the Republicans began the 115th Congress will have no incumbent in November. That’s the highest percentage since 2008, when 17.4 percent of GOP seats were abandoned before the election. But of course, the Republicans hold a lot more seats now than they did after the 2006 Democratic rout.
Angela Hart at The Sacramento Bee:
Three times more Democrats are running in the 10 targeted Republican-held California House districts this year compared to 2014 and 2016.
The latest tally of Democratic candidates, according to Federal Election Commission filings, is now at 63. In 2016, 22 Democrats competed in those districts. In 2014, there were 20.