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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Demographic Gaps and the House

In Defying the Odds, we discuss demographic gaps in the 2016 election.     The update  -- just published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.

Mike Allen at Axios:
Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Group has a stark reminder of one of the biggest 2020 issues not named Donald Trump:
  • There are 13 House Republicans who are women (out of 197 — 7%).
  • There are 14 House Republicans named Greg or Mike.
...
Hillary Clinton won women 54% to 42%, while Trump took 53% of white women voters.
In last year's midterms, the WashPost's Dan Balz saw a "revolt among suburban women ... that played out in district after district."
...
Another GOP impediment in suburbs is racial diversity, as the country grows more non-white. National Journal's Josh Kraushaar frames it bluntly:
  • "As Democrats have rapidly diversified their ranks in the last several elections, Republicans have grown more homogeneous."
  • "Only 11 of the 255 Republican members of Congress are nonwhite."