Trump Calls Epstein Survivors a Hoax

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is has been full of ominous developments. Scandals persist.

Lauren Peller, Jay O'Brien, and John Parkinson at ABC News:

President Donald Trump on Wednesday cast the Jeffrey Epstein controversy as "irrelevant" amid an effort on Capitol Hill to force a vote to release all files related to the deceased sex offender.

"This is a Democrat hoax that never ends," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about the push for more transparency in the Epstein matter.

"From what I understand, I could check, but from what I understand, thousands of pages of documents have been given," the president said. "But it's really a Democrat hoax because they're trying to get people to talk about something that's totally irrelevant to the success that we've had as a nation since I've been president."

The comments came as a group of survivors joined House members in a push to compel the Justice Department to release records so far withheld from Congress.

ABC News Capitol Hill Correspondent Jay O'Brien asked the victims for their reaction to Trump's characterization that it is a "hoax."

One survivor, Haley Robson, said it felt like "being gutted from the inside out."

"Mr. President Donald J. Trump, I am a registered Republican -- not that that matters because this is not political -- however, I cordially invite you to meet me in the Capitol in person so you can understand this is not a hoax. We are real human beings. This is real trauma," she responded.

 

 

A Night at the Garden

Our latest book is Divided We Stand The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Our next book will look at the 2024 race.  Trump has a history of stoking racism.

Hannah Knowles and Isaac Arnsdorf at WP:

A comedian who warmed up the crowd at Donald Trump’s rally here Sunday described Puerto Rico as an “island of garbage,” attracting widespread criticism and triggering a Trump campaign statement disavowing the remark.

The comedian, Tony Hinchcliffe of the “Kill Tony” podcast, was one of several opening speakers who lobbed sexist, racist and otherwise demeaning insults at a variety of targets during a Madison Square Garden rally meant to showcase Trump’s broad-based support in the home stretch of the presidential campaign.

Pennsylvania, perhaps the most critical swing state, is home to one of the largest populations of Puerto Ricans in the country. Danielle Alvarez, a Trump campaign senior adviser, said in a statement that Hinchcliffe’s “joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign.”

Trump’s campaign did not disavow other comments made by warm-up speakers at Sunday’s rally.

 At Newsweek Khaleda Rahman lists some of those comments:

• "Believe it or not, people, I welcome migrants to the United States of America with open arms. And by open arms, I mean like this," Hinchcliffe said, while waiving his hands and mouthing: "No, go back."He added: "It's wild. And these Latinos, they love making babies too, just know that. They do, they do. There's no pulling out. They don't do that. They come inside, just like they did to our country."
• Hinchcliffe also pointed to a man in the audience before saying: "That's cool, Black guy with a thing on his head. What the hell is that, a lamp shade? Look at this guy! Oh, my goodness. Wow! I'm just kidding, that's one of my buddies. He had a Halloween party last night. We had fun, we carved watermelons together. It was awesome!"
• "In fact, she is the devil, whoever screamed that out. She is Antichrist," said David Rem, a sanitation worker billed as Trump's childhood friend, although it has been reported the pair met for the first time just two weeks ago.
• "Kamala Harris is the least qualified candidate to ever run for any political office in American history," businessman Grant Cardone told the crowd. "She makes her boss look competent. She's a fake. I'm not here to invalidate her. She's a fake, a fraud. She's a pretender. Her and her pimp handlers will destroy our country. They will."
• "I just got back from Israel about two weeks ago. They love Trump in Israel. Just you know, they love him," radio personality Sid Rosenberg said. "I get back and they go, 'Sid, you want to speak at this MSG thing?' I go, 'Sure—out of character for me to speak at a Nazi rally. I was just in Israel.' But I took the gig."
• "She is some sick b******, that Hillary Clinton, huh?" Rosenberg said. "What a sick son of a b****. The whole f****** party. A bunch of degenerates. Lowlives, Jew-haters, and lowlives. Every one of 'em. Every one of 'em."

Tucker Carlson calls VP Harris "a Samoan, Malaysian, low IQ former California prosecutor." pic.twitter.com/IR9Qb7qXhu

— Republican Voters Against Trump (@AccountableGOP) October 27, 2024

Composition of the Electorate

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020. Our next book will discuss the extraordinary fight between an elderly white ex-president and a younger Black/Asian woman.

Ron Brownstein at CNN:

Extending a pattern that stretches back decades, White voters without a college degree, the cornerstone of the modern GOP coalition, have declined by a little more than 2 percentage points as a share of eligible voters since 2020, falling below 40% of the eligible voting pool for the first time ever, according a new analysis of the latest Census Bureau data by demographer William Frey shared exclusively with CNN.

While those working-class Whites are shrinking, Frey found that both Whites with at least a four-year college degree and voters of color have each increased since 2020 by about a single percentage point as a share of eligible voters. Those increases also continue long-term trends that have seen well-educated Whites grow to represent more than 1-in-4 eligible voters and people of color rise past 1-in-3.

These trends help explain why the former president has devoted so much effort to reaching beyond his traditional base of White voters without a college education to attract more Black and Latino voters, especially men. And, in turn, the trends help explain the emphasis the vice president is placing on attracting more college-educated White voters who have previously leaned toward the GOP — a priority she underscored by barnstorming across populous white-collar suburbs outside Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee with GOP former Rep. Liz Cheney on Monday.

...

He also found that women will comprise nearly 52% of all eligible voters, which should help Harris. But his analysis shows that number actually represents a very small shift in the eligible electorate since 2020 toward men, which at the margin might benefit Trump. Frey also finds that Generation Z will make a big jump in their share of eligible voters, from about 1-in-10 last time to more than 1-in-6 this year. That increase underscores the stakes in Harris’ attempt to max out her support among younger women and Trump’s determined attempts to court young men.

Harris: Woman, Asian, Black, Christian

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020. Our next book will discuss the extraordinary fight between an elderly white ex-president and a younger Black/Asian woman. 

Karthick Ramakrishnan and Sara Sadhwani

Recent data released by AAPI Data and Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIAVote) indicate that gender representation plays a stronger role than racial representation in shaping voter support for her candidacy. The survey, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago in September asked respondents, “Thinking specifically about Kamala Harris, how important to you are the following aspects of her identity?” providing choices that included “her identity as an African American,” “her identity as an Asian Indian or South Asian,” “her identity as a woman,” and “her age.”

Given the amount of news coverage and social media engagement around Harris’s racial identity as both Indian and Black, Asian American voters would be expected to give the highest importance to her Indian and South Asian heritage and her African American identities, with gender and age identities far behind. The survey results showed the opposite (see figure below).

The figure above, from the 2024 AAPI Voter Survey, reveals a significant gender gap among AAPI voters in regard to the importance of Harris’ gender identity

Well over a third of Asian American voters (38%) say that Harris’ identity as a woman is “extremely important” or “very important” to them, with significantly smaller proportions indicating the same about her racial identities as Indian/South Asian (25%) and as an African American (24%) or about her age (25%). The findings were not statistically different among Indian American voters, who arguably share even closer ethnic affinity to Harris.

Notably, the “gender boost” in identity representation was driven entirely by the opinions of Asian American women. About a half (49%) of Asian American women said that Harris’s gender was important to them, nearly double the proportion among Asian American men (25%). This gender gap was also noticeable in questions about the importance of having more elected representatives who are women (56% of Asian American women said that this was extremely important or very important to them, when compared to 36% of Asian American men), and about their intention to vote for Harris (72% among Asian American women and 59% among Asian American men).

Kamala Harris: “I grew up in the Black church. I grew up attending 23rd Avenue Church of God in Oakland, California.”

Rev. Solomon Kinloch, Jr: “That’s church.”

Harris: “My pastor is Amos C. Brown of Third Baptist Church.”

Charlamagne: “God is good.”

Harris: “All the time.” pic.twitter.com/t1X71KId9f

— Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) October 15, 2024

Whether they're religious or not, I believe people want a leader who is driven by compassion not cruelty, one whose values are rooted in hope and not fear, whose moral convictions yield inclusion and not separation.https://t.co/sj872MkZKo pic.twitter.com/IixEWa3EDv

— John Pavlovitz (@johnpavlovitz) October 16, 2024

That Was Some Weird Stuff

Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this month At times, his crudeness and weirdness have helped him appear transgressive.  Lately, they have hurt him Trump's rally in Indiana PA was bonkers even by Trump standards.

Trump attacks (legal) Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, prompting "send them back!" chants from his fans in Pennsylvania pic.twitter.com/4XBRMjSLJJ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 24, 2024

Trump: America is at fault for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not Putin. pic.twitter.com/NUugge6OoM

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) September 24, 2024

All his cultural reference points are from the 1970s and 80s. Music, TV, clothes. It’s like time stopped for the old fossil in 1985. https://t.co/nfzxTvOmEA

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) September 24, 2024

Trump addresses women: "I am your protector. I want to be your protector ... you will no longer be abandoned, lonely, or scared. You will no longer be in danger ... you will no longer be thinking about abortion." pic.twitter.com/x6GXF8WQYH

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 24, 2024

Trump: Americans who criticize the Supreme Court for overturning Roe v. Wade should be imprisoned:

“These people should be put in jail for the way they talk about our judges and justices”
pic.twitter.com/mQXbcaiT5G

— The Intellectualist (@highbrow_nobrow) September 24, 2024

Trump mocks President Zelensky “Every time he comes into the country he walks away with $60 billion dollars" and says he’ll immediately end the war if he wins:
“I’ll call up Zelensky & President Putin”

(Notice he only refers to Putin as “president”)
pic.twitter.com/pdaKTuugPD

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) September 24, 2024

Culture War

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.  

From Pew:

 

State of the Union Aftermath

 Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. The nomination phase has effectively ended.  With Super Tuesday, the withdrawal of Nikki Haley, and the State of the Union, the general election campaign has begun.  Despite some garbled words and an occasional reappearance of his lifelong stutter, Biden's performance reassured nervous Democrats that he can display vigor.

NYT:

In a raucous State of the Union address, President Joe Biden’s goal was to reassure Americans that at 81, he is ready for a second term.

• A Contrast With Trump: President Biden launched a series of fiery attacks against former President Donald Trump, a competitor whom he did not mention by name but made clear was a dire threat to American democracy and stability in the world.
• A Rowdy Address: The president was feisty and confrontational. Republicans jeered from their seats. And Democrats enthusiastically cheered their presidential nominee even as a few aired their grievances about the war in Gaza.
• Biden’s Battles: Republican opposition, splits in his own party and tension with allies make Mr. Biden’s vow to restore American power more complicated than it was when he came into office.
• Trump’s Response: Outages on Trump’s platform, Truth Social, interrupted the barrage of derogatory posts that served as his retort to Biden’s remarks.

The GOP response by Sen. Katie Britt of Alabama was a fiasco. Martin Pengelly at The Guardian:

Katie Britt’s Republican response to Joe Biden’s State of the Union address drew reactions ranging from the baffled to the satirical to the appalled, even among fellow rightwingers.

“What the hell am I watching right now?” an unnamed Trump adviser told Rolling Stone.

“It’s one of our biggest disasters ever,” another unnamed Republican strategist told the Daily Beast.

...

In his address Biden used his bully pulpit effectively, attacking Republicans in a fiery speech and inviting a strong response. But Britt’s speech, delivered with overt theatricality, oscillating in tone between the wholesome and the wholly horrific, did not land well even in her own party.

Charlie Kirk, founder of the far-right Turning Point USA youth group, said: “I’m sure Katie Britt is a sweet mom and person, but this speech is not what we need. Joe Biden just declared war on the American right and Katie Britt is talking like she’s hosting a cooking show, whispering about how Democrats ‘dont get it’.”

That pointed to widespread confusion over the setting for such a figure to give such an important speech: a kitchen.

As a Gallup poll showed 57% of American voters think the US would be better off if more women were in elected office, Alyssa Farah Griffin, a Trump aide turned never-Trumper, said: “Senator Katie Britt is a very impressive person … I do not understand the decision to put her in a KITCHEN for one of the most important speeches she’s ever given.”

so it appears that @SenKatieBritt is not just a bad actress but also a huge liar

this is what the Republican Party has become https://t.co/R8Lvx9mnOY

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) March 9, 2024

 

Trump Loses Again

Our most recent book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and Trump's disregard for law.

Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan at NYT:

When Alvin L. Bragg secured the indictment of former President Donald J. Trump, it galvanized Trump supporters. Allies of his Republican rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, mark that indictment as the moment that Mr. Trump sped away from his nearest opponent in the polls.

Nobody around Mr. Trump is making a prediction publicly or privately that there will be a similar effect after a jury on Tuesday in the lawsuit brought by E. Jean Carroll found him liable for sexual abuse and defamation.

The price that Mr. Trump was ordered by the jury to pay his accuser, Ms. Carroll, was $5 million, in a verdict he has promised to appeal. But whether he pays any political price at all is unclear. Mr. Trump was said to be furious about the verdict, and questioning the various decisions that were made by his team in the defense. Far from letting up on Ms. Carroll, his team plans to aggressively attack her claims and tether her to Democrats.

...

One of the most damaging aspects of the trial for Mr. Trump was his videotaped deposition. People close to him acknowledge the comments were a self-inflicted wound, and are aware Democrats in particular may put them in television ads where independent and suburban voters whom Mr. Trump long ago alienated would see them.

 

Trump defends his comments from the “Access Hollywood” tape in his taped deposition:

Trump: “Historically, that’s true with stars…If you look over the last million years, I guess that’s been largely true. Not always, but largely true. Unfortunately or fortunately.” pic.twitter.com/FqtTVFF2oE

— Republican Accountability (@AccountableGOP) May 5, 2023

Abortion Politics and Public Opinion

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. Abortion was a big issue in the 2022 midterm.

 Megan Brenan at Gallup:

Americans are more dissatisfied with U.S. abortion policies now than they have been at any point in Gallup’s 23-year trend, and those who are dissatisfied are three times as likely to prefer less strict rather than more strict abortion laws.

The record-high 69% of U.S. adults dissatisfied with abortion laws includes 46% who prefer that these laws be made less strict, marking a 16-percentage-point jump in this sentiment since January 2022. In addition, 15% of Americans are dissatisfied and favor stricter laws, and 8% are dissatisfied but want them to stay the same. Meanwhile, 26% of Americans are satisfied with the nation’s abortion policies, similar to last year’s 24% record low.

...

The percentage of women who are dissatisfied with U.S. abortion policies and support less strict laws has risen 18 points this year to 50%, compared with a 13-point increase among men to 41% over the past year. Both readings are the highest on record for those groups.

...

Abortion policy in the U.S. has changed drastically after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June. With individual states now having more leeway in making abortion policy, 12 states have bans in effect, and more have restricted the availability of abortions.

The abortion issue was on the ballot in 2022, including in several states where legislators tried unsuccessfully to change their state constitutions to restrict abortion rights. Even in states where abortion was not on the ballot in 2022, Gallup polling and exit polls suggest that it played a significant role in the election and was at least partially responsible for Republicans’ net loss of one Senate seat and failure to gain as many House seats as they had hoped.

The Abortion Midterm

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

Natalie Allison at Politico:

Republicans this election cycle thought they had finally achieved a breakthrough with suburban women after years of losing support.

Now, as the primary season has all but ended, the GOP is back where it once was: Appealing directly to skeptical female voters, the women whose support will make or break the party’s drive to retake the Senate majority.

A sure sign: One after the other, Republican nominees in top Senate battlegrounds have softened, backpedaled and sought to clarify their abortion positions after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. Another is that male candidates have begun putting their wives in front of the camera to speak directly to voters in new television ads.

Those ads, along with public and internal polling data, suggest that the GOP’s struggle to attract women voters may turn out to be the biggest obstacle standing between the party and a potential Senate majority in 2023. A Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday showed that abortion was the single issue most likely to drive respondents to vote this fall, above inflation. And 52 percent of white suburban women say they would support a Democratic candidate in the election, the poll found, while only 40 percent said they would vote for the Republican.

Democrats have over-performed in every special election since the SCOTUS Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) on what GOP messaging on abortion should be: "We'll lean into it, we're the pro-life party, we're gonna protect the sanctity of human life." pic.twitter.com/turdDfOPdj

— The Recount (@therecount) September 6, 2022

Very Important Primary Night

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.   Despite deep economic problems, are some favorable signs for Democrats in the 2022 midterms.

Gregory Krieg at CNN:

The wording of the question was convoluted, but the answer was crystal clear: No. Voters in Kansas on Tuesday, in dramatic numbers and by an overwhelming margin, rejected a ballot measure that would have allowed lawmakers to ban abortion in the state.

As Republican-controlled state legislatures around the country race to outlaw the procedure in the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, traditionally conservative Kansas, given the chance to directly respond at the ballot box, denied their own elected leaders’ the chance to revoke a right that has broad support across swaths of independent polling.

The rejection of the measure highlighted the increasingly stark divide between the activities of Republican state lawmakers, often in legislatures gerrymandered to effectively guarantee GOP control, and the political and policy desires of American voters. In more immediate terms, the ballot measure’s defeat – on a day of extraordinary turnout – also provides a clear indication that the desire to defend abortion rights could be a potent issue for Democrats in the coming midterm elections.

The Dobbs decision engaged women in Kansas to an unprecedented degree.

This chart shows the percent of new registrants in the state who were women (as a 7 day average). Note the spike after the Dobbs decision leaked, and huge jump after the Supreme Court handed it down. pic.twitter.com/pvi3WpuR86

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) August 3, 2022

d 

 Amanda Carpenter at The Bulwark:

Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump after the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, only those who went on to compete in non-traditional Republican primaries have, so far, fended off Trump-backed rivals.

On Tuesday, three pro-impeachment Republicans: Peter Meijer of Michigan and Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse of Washington were on the ballot. Meijer was defeated by a Trump-backed rival, John Gibbs. And, at the time of this writing, Herrera Beutler and Newhouse, appear to be headed to a general election for their races.

The difference? Washington is a state that has an open, non-partisan system that allows the top two finishers in each contest to compete against each other in the general election. This is the model, known as a “jungle primary,” that also facilitated pro-impeachment California Republican David Valadao’s advancement to a general election.

Those three–Herrera Beutler, Newhouse, and Valadao–are the only pro-impeachment Republicans, to date, to survive their primaries.

Larry Elder v. Women

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

Carla Marinucci at Politico:

Alexandra Datig, the former fiancee and longtime radio producer for California GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder, says she broke off an 18-month engagement with the conservative talk show host in 2015 after he waved a gun at her while high on marijuana.

Datig’s claim, which she regards as the culmination of a series of humiliating disputes that made her fearful for her safety and her ability to maintain her sobriety, comes as Elder has gained momentum in the recall to replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, with many observers counting him as the likeliest GOP alternative should voters decide to replace the incumbent.

But little is known about Elder’s personal life. Datig portrayed him as a marijuana user who would often become threatening or insistent with her, including in his repeated demands that she get a “Larry’s Girl” tattoo to show her devotion to him.

Andrew Kaczynski, Em Steck and Drew Myers at CNN:

"Glass ceiling? Ha! What glass ceiling? Women, women exaggerate the problem of sexism," radio host Larry Elder said in a 1996 ad for his radio show.

Then a hand slaps him across the face.

"Blacks exaggerate the significance of racism," Elder adds. Another slap. "Medicare should be abolished," he continues. Slap. With each new comment, a hand slaps Elder across his face.

"What'd I say?" a grinning Elder asks as the ad concludes.

Elder has long relished making provocative comments in his time as a radio host and columnist. But now, what he previously said could complicate the Republican's campaign to win California's September 14 recall election and unseat sitting Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. His comments about women -- which have already drawn attacks from his opponents -- are coming under scrutiny. And a CNN KFile review of his comments, dating back to 1996, show a lengthy history.

 

House Elections

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.   Our next book, title TBA, discusses the 2020 results.

David Wasserman at Cook Political Report:

In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." And, they won. Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. But Republicans turned the tables in 2020, and it worked.

Of the 13 Republicans who flipped Democratic-held seats in 2020, all were women and/or minorities. Three are of Cuban ancestry, two were born in South Korea and one was born in Ukraine — allowing them to personalize an anti-socialism message. It helped that these candidates didn't look like Trump or GOP leaders, and many (though not all) sounded quite different from Trump too.

All cycle, the NRCC, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21) worked local trenches to clear fields for these recruits and, if necessary, help them get through tough primaries. In the end, women and minorities helped Republicans win six districts Trump failed to carry. 

Wasserman at Cook:

26. Democrats would likely have lost their House majority in 2020 had it not been for lawsuits that overturned GOP-drawn congressional maps prior to 2016 (Florida and Virginia), 2018 (Pennsylvania) and 2020 (North Carolina). The new, court-ordered maps gave Democrats approximately ten more seats than they would have won under the old lines — roughly double Democrats' new House edge.

27. According to FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich, there have only been three federal elections in the last century decided by less than 20 votes. This year alone, there may be two such races: Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks was certified as the winner in Iowa's 2nd CD by six votes, and Republican Claudia Tenney currently holds a lead of 11 votes in New York's 22nd CD.

28. There will be at most 17 congressional districts that split their tickets between the presidential and congressional ballots, the fewest in the past century (there were 35 such districts in 2016 and 83 in 2008).

29. The biggest overperformance of the top of the ticket by a House Democrat was by Rep. Collin Peterson (MN-07), who lost by only 13.6 points despite Biden losing his district by 29.4 points. The biggest overperformance of the top of the ticket by a House Republican was by Rep. John Curtis (UT-03), who won by 41.9 points while Trump won his district by just 25.1 points.

30. The biggest underperformance of the top of the ticket by a House Democrat was by Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN-05), who won by 38.5 points as Biden won the district by 55 points. The biggest underperformance of the top of the ticket by a House Republican was by Rep. Jim Hagedorn (MN-01), who won by 3.1 points as Trump carried the district by 10.1 points.

Greg Giroux at Bloomberg Government:

Kim and Steel will be the only Republican women in the California delegation and are two of the first three Korean-American women ever elected to Congress. They targeted their districts’ large Asian-American constituencies — mostly Chinese, Korean, and Filipino in the 39th, and largely Vietnamese in the 48th.

“Even in a polarized political climate, good candidates with a strong message can win anywhere,” said Sam Oh, vice president of the Republican digital firm Targeted Victory, who was general consultant to the Steel and Kim campaigns. “Michelle Steel and Young Kim are dynamic candidates with deep roots in their communities and with proven records of getting things done and being bipartisan.”

House GOP pickups:#CA21 David Valadao#CA39 Young Kim#CA48 Michelle Park Steel#FL26 Carlos Gimenez#FL27 Maria Elvira Salazar#IA01 Ashley Hinson#MN07 Michelle Fischbach#NM02 Yvette Herrell#NY11 Nicole Malliotakis#OK05 Stephanie Bice#SC01 Nancy Mace#UT04 Burgess Owens

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 21, 2020

This is the closest House election since #IN08's four vote Dem win in 1984. It's also Republicans' 13th pickup of a Dem seat so far (all pickups by GOP women/minorities), and Dems are slated to drop from three seats to just one in Iowa.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 2, 2020

Brindisi takes the unofficial lead w/ more Oneida Co. ballots reviewed, but still a long way to go in #NY22. https://t.co/QrZkpJUVbW

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 23, 2020

NRCC Recruitment: The Iron Law of Emulation

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.   Our next book, title TBA, discusses the 2020 results.

House Republicans did a strong job of recruitment.

Li Zhou at Vox:

There’s also a historic number of women of color who’ve been elected to Congress: According to CAWP, newly elected Black women, Latina women, and Asian American and Pacific Islander women all broke records in the House. Some outlets have also noted that Rep. Yvette Herrell — a member of the Cherokee Nation — adds to the number of Native American women in Congress as well, though Herrell has told CAWP that she identifies as white

...

Republican wins this year stood out, especially after the number of GOP women in the House dipped dramatically in 2018. That year, the ranks of Republican women in the lower chamber went from 23 to 13, while Democrats’ grew from 64 to 89. (Republicans will have at least 27 in the new term.)

At the time, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) said that Republicans had reached a “crisis level” of women in the House.

That “crisis” has since spurred more GOP groups — including Stefanik’s Elevate PAC — to boost women candidates, particularly at the primary level where there hasn’t historically been as much support. On the Democratic side, Emily’s List has been integral to backing candidates at the primary stage of the race, and Republican organizations are increasingly working to replicate that model.

This year, that effort ramped up, according to Kodiak Hill-Davis, a founder and political director of Republican Women for Progress, a group dedicated to providing training for GOP candidates. “Without getting these women through the primaries, you can’t get them through the general election,” she told Vox.

A growing number of organizations — including Winning for Women, VIEW Pac, and E-PAC — are among those dedicated to this effort, which includes financial investment and endorsements that highlight women candidates. “In addition to any funding they’ve been able to provide, they also send a signal,” [Rutgers politicsl scientist Kelly] Dittmar said.

In 2019, Bridget Bowman reported at Roll Call:

Indiana Rep. Susan W. Brooks made a point of telling her Republican colleagues this week about several new candidates who are women and people of color.

“It’s important that we, as a conference, do a better job of looking like America, and better representing the very diverse country that we have,” Brooks, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s recruitment chair, told Roll Call after Tuesday’s meeting of the GOP conference.

Brooks said she told lawmakers it was important to recruit a diverse group of challengers for the 2020 election following devastating losses in 2018. She said she is well aware that just 13 of the 197 House Republicans are women and just nine are not white.

In February of this year, Brooks wrote:

That plan started with changing the way our Party recruited candidates.  With help from my fellow Members of Congress serving as Recruitment Captains, we went out looking for candidates who uniquely fit their district, reflect the diversity of America, and can win competitive races.  We didn’t stop because one person announced they were running.  We kept looking for the best candidates in these districts to win in November.  Our Recruitment Captains prioritized creating a Republican conference that better reflects our diverse national Republican Party.

...

With support from Chairman Tom Emmer and others like Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, whose leadership PAC, Elevate-PAC, is designed to help elect Republican women, we are putting ourselves in a position to elect more Republican women to the House of Representatives.  A record 200 women have filed to run for the House this cycle which demolishes the previous record.

Danielle Kurtzleben at NPR:

Stefanik has become the face of efforts to boost Republican women in Congress. She was in charge of recruitment for House Republicans in 2018, an abysmal year for GOP women. Among the 13 women elected to the House from the Republican Party in the midterms, there was just one nonincumbent candidate.

After that, Stefanik clashed with National Republican Congressional Committee chair Tom Emmer over whether the party should do more to boost women in primaries. Emmer told a reporter that would be a "mistake." Stefanik, for her part, focused her energy on building up her leadership PAC, E-PAC.

Her committee promoted more than two dozen candidates and gave $415,000 to Republican women, including Fischbach.

Stefanik credits the candidates with their wins, but she also feels that she played a key role.

"What I believe is different this cycle is I publicly made this a priority for the Republicans I served with in Congress," Stefanik said. "I very publicly said at the end of the midterms in 2018 that we needed to do better."

 

 

Year of the Republican Women

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.   Our next book, title TBA, discusses the 2020 results.

 Melanie Zanona at Politico:

YEAR OF THE GOP WOMAN -- After a successful effort to recruit and elect more GOP women, one key outside group is looking to grow its influence in the next election. Roll Call with the dispatch: “Winning for Women, which also has an independent expenditure arm known as WFW Action Fund, noted in a memo that is being sent to donors, board members and advisers that it surpassed its goal of electing 20 GOP women to the House.

“The memo touted 27 Republican women who have won House races, and that number could grow with several races still not called. That figure includes GOP Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, whose race The Associated Press has not yet called. Democratic Rep. Max Rose conceded to Malliotakis on Thursday. The group sees women candidates as key to winning over suburban women voters, a bloc that has fled the GOP after President Donald Trump’s election.” More from Bridget Bowman: https://bit.ly/3lwbNVn.

Related read: “Here are the 17 GOP women newly elected to the House this year,” via The Hill’s Tal Axelrod: https://bit.ly/2ILa4gA.

Nick Gerda at Voice of OC:

Orange County Republicans are celebrating a second victory in flipping back a Congressional seat they lost in 2018, with Young Kim declaring victory Friday night after Democrat Rep. Gil Cisneros conceded the north OC-based 39th District.

“Our community is such a wonderful place because we come together to look out for one another. I will take that spirit with me to represent you in Washington, D.C.,” Kim said in a video released Friday evening.

“Following the results of this election, I want to congratulate Congressman Gil Cisneros on a hard-fought race. I want to thank him for his service to our country and to the 39th District.”

Cisneros publicly conceded earlier Friday evening.

“I called to congratulate Young Kim on her victory,” Cisneros said in a statement.

“For the benefit of the district and the country, I wish her nothing but the best and hope she will stay true to her word and protect those with preexisting conditions, work to lower prescription drug prices and reinstate the [state and local tax] deduction.”

Kim’s victory comes on the heels of Republicans flipping the coastal 48th Congressional District, with OC Supervisor Michelle Steel winning the seat from Democrat Rep. Harley Rouda.

Unforced Errors by Trump

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway.   It unfolds  as Coronavirus presents unprecedented challenges to public policy and the electoral process.   

During COVID, rallies mostly have to take place outdoors. In late October, therefore, attendees in many places have to wait for hours in cold weather. If a campaign is going to put supporters in that position, it must ensure their safety. 

 Tim Elfrink at WP:

By the time President Trump finished speaking to thousands of supporters at Omaha’s Eppley Airfield on Tuesday night and jetted away on Air Force One, the temperature had plunged to nearly freezing.

But as long lines of MAGA-clad attendees queued up for buses to take them to distant parking lots, it quickly became clear that something was wrong.

The buses, the huge crowd soon learned, couldn’t navigate the jammed airport roads. For hours, attendees — including many elderly Trump supporters — stood in the cold, as police scrambled to help those most at-risk get to warmth.

At least seven people were taken to hospitals, according to Omaha Scanner, which monitors official radio traffic. Police and fire authorities didn’t immediately return messages from The Washington Post early Wednesday and declined to provide reporters on the scene with precise numbers of how many needed treatment.

Under Nebraska's district system for choosing electors, the congressional district surrounding Omaha has one electoral vote.  By screwing up logistics, Team Trump may have thrown it away. 

Even without hypothermia, Trump rallies are dangerous.

Shawna Chen at Axios:

The Minnesota Department of Health has traced nearly two dozen coronavirus cases to three campaign events held last month, an official told Axios on Monday. Why it matters: The Trump campaign has come under repeated fire for being lax about mask requirements and not adhering to social distancing and other local guidelines at its events. Minnesota has also seen a surge in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, with nearly 1,600 new COVID-19 cases reported on Monday, per MPR News. 

Paul LeBlanc at CNN:

President Donald Trump offered his latest appeal to suburban women Tuesday evening, promising to get their husbands "back to work" if he's reelected.

Claiming he was "saving suburbia" at a campaign rally in Lansing, Michigan, the President pitched himself as the candidate for suburban women voters because he's "getting your kids back to school" and "getting your husbands -- they want to get back to work. We're getting your husbands back to work."

While Trump focused on "husbands" during his speech in Michigan on Tuesday, the coronavirus pandemic has had a much larger effect on women in the work place.

The International Monetary Fund warned in July that the pandemic recession is hurting women more than men, and job losses during the economic downturn are happening in sectors of the economy where women are disproportionately represented. The annual Women in the Workplace report from McKinsey & Company and LeanIn.Org showed one in four women reporting they are considering downshifting their career or stepping out of the work place entirely, partly due to the demands the pandemic has placed placed on working mothers.

 

Biden and Sanders

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well under way.

Lloyd Green at The Guardian:

On Sunday, America caught a glimpse of the coming campaign: two septuagenarians battling each other without a live audience applauding and goading. The debate changed nothing, but at the end of the evening Joe Biden was sitting on the cusp of the Democratic nomination. Come Tuesday, the former vice-president is poised for lopsided wins in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio.

Without Hillary Clinton as a foil and target, Sanders’ luster appears gone. It is no longer his time, if it ever was. As Biden put it: “We have problems we have to solve now. What’s a revolution going to do? Disrupt everything in the meantime?”

Faced with a pestilential presidency, the Democrats are ready to rally to around the Delaware Democrat. Even better for Biden, so too may be the rest of the country. Nationally, the latest polls give Biden a nine-point lead over Donald Trump. Whether Biden can sustain that edge remains to be seen.

Amid a pandemic, a battered stock market and zero-interest rates, a president disclaiming his own responsibility is more than America can afford or bear. Unalloyed self-absolution and the Oval Office are a toxic brew. A Biden presidency would not be flashy but it would definitely be engaged.

John F. Harris at Politico:

The assumption that there is no practical way the Democratic Party can put forward a presidential ticket with two white men has become so widely accepted in journalistic and political circles that a major development at last night’s debate was greeted in some quarters with something of a shrug.

But Joseph Biden’s firm public commitment that he would select a woman as his running mate in the event he stays atop the Democratic race and is the party’s 2020 nominee is historically unprecedented: No major candidate has ever made such a pledge based on demographic characteristics, nor has one narrowed the field of potential vice presidential nominees this early in the year, several months before the decision is usually made.