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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Friday, September 6, 2019

CA Voter Demographics

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race. The update -- recently published -- looks at political and demographic trends through the 2018 midterm.

Whites make up only 42% of California’s adult population but comprise 58% of likely voters. In contrast, Latinos make up 35% of the state’s adult population but only 19% of likely voters. The shares of Asian American (13%) and African American (6%) likely voters are proportionate to their shares of the state’s adult population—15% for Asian Americans and 6% for African Americans. Half (51%) of Democratic likely voters are white; 24% are Latino, 12% are Asian American, and 10% are African American. An overwhelming majority (76%) of Republican likely voters are white; relatively few are Latino (11%), Asian American (8%), or African American (1%). Among independents, 51% are white, 20% are Asian American, 19% are Latino,
and 6% are African American.