In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race. The update looks at political and demographic trends through the 2018 midterm. Our next book will explain 2020. As of early May, the signs are negative for the GOP.
Driving the news: Polls released Tuesday show Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) leading incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (R) by 7 points (sample size: 738) and North Carolina Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham beating Republican Sen. Thom Tillis by 9 points (sample size: 1,362).
Other recent numbers show an upward trend for Democrats:
- Arizona: Democratic frontrunner Mark Kelly leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally by 8 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average.
- Kansas: Democratic frontrunner Barbara Bollier led possible Republican nominee Kris Kobach by 2 points in a recent Public Policy Polling survey.
- Maine: Sara Gideon (D) has a 2.5-point lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the Real Clear Politics average.
- Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst (R) leads possible challenger Theresa Greenfield (D) by a point in a new Public Policy Polling survey.