In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race. The update looks at political and demographic trends through the 2018 midterm. Our next book will explain 2020. As of early May, the signs are negative for the GOP
The most vulnerable Republican incumbents are Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Martha McSally of Arizona, Cory Gardner of Colorado, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. All four races are rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Recent polls show the Democratic challenger leading by a narrow margin in Maine and North Carolina. Mark Kelly, the astronaut and husband of former Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords, has a comfortable lead over McSally in Arizona, and former Gov. John Hickenlooper has opened up a double-digit lead over Gardner in Colorado.
“At this point, I think it’s closer than we would like to see,” Loraine Pellegrino, the former president of the Arizona Federation of Republican Women, said of the state’s Senate race. Democrats are “fielding a very formidable candidate and [McSally] is going to have to work hard. That’s the reality.”.
Republicans acknowledged that the pandemic changed the dynamics of the 2020 election cycle.
“If the economy continues to crater, I think that presents serious problems for the president,” said Michael McAdams, the press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm.