Search This Blog

Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Thursday, November 3, 2022

Election 2022

Likely outcome oneDemocrats prevail in California statewide elections.

Likely outcome two: most ballot measures lose.

Likely outcome three: Republicans win a majority in the US House.

Other outcomes are harder to predict because of polling challenges:

Senate tossups: average poll margins (as of this morning)

  • Arizona: Kelly (D) 1.3%
  • Georgia: Walker (R) 0.4%
  • Nevada: Laxalt (R) 1.9%
  • New Hampshire: Bolduc (R) 0.3%
  • Ohio: Vance (R) 3.3%
  • Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 0.2%
  • Washington: Murray (D) 3.0%
  • Wisconsin: Johnson (R) 3.2%

If all the tossups go R, Republicans get a net gain of 5.

If all tossups go D, Democrats get a net gain of 3.

Prospects for 2023:

In California, the political alignment is clear, but the economic outlook is cloudy.  A stock market downturn could severely affect state revenues.

In Washington, divided government will hinder basic decisions such as passing spending bills and raising the debt ceiling.

Expect lots of investigations.  Some Republicans will push for Biden's impeachment.