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Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Midterm Overview:

Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND): “This is the weirdest election I’ve ever been a part of.”

The fundamentals looked bad for Democrats:.
One formula predicted that Democrats would lose 44 House seats.  Instead, they lost 10 at most.

In Senate races, Democrats did better than the polls had indicated.

Margins:  election eve polling averages vs. actual:
  • Arizona: Kelly (D) 1.0%  vs. 4.9%
  • Georgia: Walker (R) 0.6% vs.  -0.9%
  • Nevada: Laxalt (R) 2.8% vs. -1.9%
  • New Hampshire: Hassan (D) 1.0% vs. 9.1%
  • Ohio: Vance (R) 7.5 % vs. 6.5%
  • Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 0.1% vs. 4.5%
  • Washington: Murray (D) 3.0% vs. 14.9%
  • Wisconsin: Johnson (R) 2.8% vs. 1.0%

In Senate elections, candidates mattered.

Prospects for 2023:

  • In California, the political alignment is clear, but the economic outlook is cloudy.  Inflation has already taken a toll, and a stock market downturn could severely affect state revenues.
  • In Washington, divided government will hinder basic decisions such as passing spending bills and raising the debt ceiling. The GOP's narrow margin will not help.
  • Expect lots of investigations.  Some Republicans will push for Biden's impeachment.