Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND): “This is the weirdest election I’ve ever been a part of.”
The fundamentals looked bad for Democrats:.One formula predicted that Democrats would lose 44 House seats. Instead, they lost 10 at most.
In Senate races, Democrats did better than the polls had indicated.
Margins: election eve polling averages vs. actual:
- Arizona: Kelly (D) 1.0% vs. 4.9%
- Georgia: Walker (R) 0.6% vs. -0.9%
- Nevada: Laxalt (R) 2.8% vs. -1.9%
- New Hampshire: Hassan (D) 1.0% vs. 9.1%
- Ohio: Vance (R) 7.5 % vs. 6.5%
- Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) 0.1% vs. 4.5%
- Washington: Murray (D) 3.0% vs. 14.9%
- Wisconsin: Johnson (R) 2.8% vs. 1.0%
What happened? Democrats had a unique opportunity to run as an opposition party.
- People see the Supreme Court as a political branch: 63 percent say the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics
- And Dobbs was unpopular.
In Senate elections, candidates mattered.
Prospects for 2023:
- In California, the political alignment is clear, but the economic outlook is cloudy. Inflation has already taken a toll, and a stock market downturn could severely affect state revenues.
- In Washington, divided government will hinder basic decisions such as passing spending bills and raising the debt ceiling. The GOP's narrow margin will not help.
- Expect lots of investigations. Some Republicans will push for Biden's impeachment.