Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics.
Dan Merica and Matthew Choi at WP:
TACO — or “Trump Always Chickens Out” — is a Wall Street acronym that suggests that the president often talks tough on tariffs but ultimately backs down. The term, coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, highlights how Wall Street, which Trump has long seen as a leading market indicator, has learned to ignore the president’s talk and focus on his actions after the president paused his harshest tariffs following the stock market’s plummet in April.
“He does check the score board, and the score board is the stock market,” said Michael Batnick, a managing partner at Ritholtz Wealth Management and one of the hosts of “The Compound,” a YouTube show and podcast on business and investing. He noted that Trump’s announcement Friday that he would double U.S. tariffs on European steel to 50 percent corresponded with a markedly quiet day of trading. “He ran out of juice,” Batnick told us. “He made that announcement and nobody cared, like it was a child having a tantrum and people said, ‘Leave him in the corner, he will stop crying.’
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It’s hard to campaign on what a party didn’t do. But that’s essentially what Republicans have to do in selling their extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in their mega bill.
Here’s the test for Republicans: If they extend the tax bill, most taxpayers won’t see a difference on Tax Day and can enjoy current tax rates. But if they fail, taxes will pop back up under a fully Republican-led government and the GOP will get the blame. In terms of political messaging, it could wind up a draw or a loss since it’s hard to campaign on a counterfactual.
