Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, announced on Sunday that he would not seek re-election next year, a day after President Trump threatened to back a primary challenger against him because Mr. Tillis had said he opposed the bill carrying Mr. Trump’s domestic agenda.
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In January, Mr. Trump made it clear that he was contemplating finding a primary challenger to Mr. Tillis after the senator expressed grave reservations about his nominee for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth. Mr. Tillis eventually fell in line and backed the president’s pick, surrendering to Mr. Trump’s demands for loyalty.
Mr. Tillis in his statement blamed the lack of any middle ground in Congress on both parties, pointing to the recent departures of Senators Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, both conservative-leaning Democrats before Ms. Sinema switched her affiliation to Independent, without naming them.
“When people see independent thinking on the other side, they cheer,” he said. “But when those very same people see independent thinking coming from their side, they scorn, ostracize and even censure them.”
Earlier today...
Donna King at Carolina Journal:
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis is under fire from President Donald Trump, who announced via social media this weekend that he may support a primary challenger to Tillis in the 2026 Senate race. The move comes after Tillis opposed advancing Trump’s high-profile legislative proposal—the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—in a narrowly divided US Senate vote.
In posts on Truth Social, Trump blasted Tillis for what he called a “BIG MISTAKE,” saying, “Numerous people have come forward wanting to run in the Primary against ‘Senator Thom’ Tillis. I will be meeting with them over the coming weeks looking for someone to properly represent the Great People of North Carolina.” In several posts, Trump accused Tillis of grandstanding and being “missing in action.”
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A Victory Insights poll conducted last summer shows Tillis trailing far behind Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law and a Wilmington native, in a hypothetical GOP primary. Lara Trump leads with 65% support among likely Republican voters, compared to just 11% for Tillis.
On the Democrat side, former Congressman Wiley Nickel has already thrown his hat in the ring for Tillis’ seat, but most eyes are on former Gov. Roy Cooper to potentially challenge Tillis. A Democrat with statewide name recognition and deep fundraising capabilities, polling indicates Cooper could have a slight advantage over Republican contenders in a general election matchup.
In the Victory poll, a matchup between Cooper and Tillis shows the former governor leading the senator, 45.1%-44.1%. If Cooper were to face Lara Trump, his edge is slightly larger, 45.5%-44.3%. Annie Karni at NYT:
