Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. The early signs in the 2026 midterms do not favor Republicans.
Stocks keep hitting new highs with every major investment bank predicting gains in 2026. But consumer confidence is near record-lows, especially among workers with less education (who are less likely to own equities). Blue collar workers earn less, consume less, are more exposed to inflation and face tougher job prospects. Whether and how they vote will decide the outcome of the midterms, and recent polls suggest they’re “in play” given economic anxieties. Politicians hoping to win in 2026 & 2028 take note — soccer moms are out, Walmart moms are back.
1. Blue Collar Consumers Are Afraid
The January 2026 University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment found record-low confidence among those lacking a college degree.
2. Blue Collar Jobs Keeps Disappearing
One reason working class voters are not confident about the economy is the intensifying contraction in blue-collar jobs, with employment shrinking by more than 145k jobs over the last year. Per Joseph Politano:
Job growth in construction has functionally zeroed out, while manufacturing and logistics are each losing tens of thousands of jobs. Warehouses alone have shrunk their workforce by more than 50k over the last year, putting the sector 150k jobs below its early-2022 peak.
Unforced errors are not helping the GOP:
Trump: I don’t want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people who own their homes. You can be sure that will happen pic.twitter.com/9BupkUmXss
— Acyn (@Acyn) January 29, 2026
