Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
A sputtering economy, high gas prices, a fight with the pope and a pair of foreign policy setbacks — in Pakistan and Hungary — have left many White House allies newly exasperated as they try to navigate what was always going to be a difficult midterm year.
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Trump’s weaves and fights are nothing new. But they come at an increasingly inconvenient time for a party clinging to razor-thin margins in Congress. Polls show Trump’s handling of the economy at career lows. A significant number of Republicans don’t support the war in Iran, and the White House spent part of Monday defending and then deleting a meme of Trump as Jesus Christ that infuriated many MAGA warriors.
“I was surprised at the number of strong Trump supporting evangelicals who were willing to criticize him,” said Erick Erickson, a conservative radio host and an influential voice with evangelical voters central to the MAGA base. “The problem ultimately is as he becomes a lame duck more and more people start to move beyond him. If he wants to minimize people looking to 2028 past him, he can’t do stuff like this. It minimizes the ability to keep the focus on him and his policies as people finally get tired of it. That’s bad for the midterms and bad for his ability to advance his agenda.”
