Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Mark Di Camillo at the Institute for Governmental Studies:
The state ballot initiative that is drawing the most attention in California’s upcoming general election is Proposition 40, the Billionaires Tax initiative. Nearly three in four likely voters report having already heard of the initiative, and when presented with its official ballot title and summary, slightly more are inclined to vote Yes (48%) than No (41%). The controversial initiative calls for imposing a one-time 5% tax on the assets of the state’s billionaires, with most of its funds devoted to health care.
The poll finds voting preferences on Proposition 40 to be highly partisan and related to the ideological leanings of the electorate. Support is greatest among Democrats and strongly liberal voters, while Republicans and conservatives are solidly on the No side. On a regional basis, Proposition 40 is receiving strong support from voters in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County, but trails among voters in Orange County, the Central Valley, and the state’s North Coast/Sierras region. D fferences in support are also observed by age, gender and the race/ethnicity of voters, with majorities of younger voters, women and voters of color voting Yes, while pluralities of voters ages 65 or older, males, and whites are voting No.
Opponents of Proposition 40 have qualified two counter initiatives, Propositions 41 and 42, for the November election ballot that are primarily aimed at nullifying the Billionaires Tax should it pass. Yet, voter awareness of these two counter measures is low and when presented with the official ballot titles and summaries of each initiative voters are divided, with many undecided.
Newsom's opposition to Prop 40 is significant.
In 2022 (updated 2024), Ben Christopher wrote at KQED:Voting down Proposition 30 might seem a little off-brand for the California electorate.
These are the voters, after all, who showed no qualms just a decade ago about hiking income taxes on top earners and who also hit up millionaires in 2004 to pay for mental health services. These are the California majorities who, as recently as June (PDF), told pollsters that they were either considering purchasing or had already purchased an electric car. Most named air pollution, wildfires and climate change as areas of major personal concern.
And yet the ballot measure that would have increased taxes on about 43,000 multimillionaires (on income above $2 million a year) to fund electric-car rebates and to combat wildfires has suffered an unambiguous defeat. In the statewide vote count as of late Wednesday, 59% rejected the proposal.
At first glance, the fate of Proposition 30 may be the most compelling head-scratcher of the 2022 California election. But for the campaigns on both sides of the highly contested measure, and for many independent political observers to boot, there’s an obvious answer to this electoral mystery — and its name is Gov. Gavin Newsom.
“You can’t remove the governor from it,” said Matt Rodriguez, campaign manager for No on 30. “He’s a credible messenger on the opposition side, simply because I think a lot of people and a lot of Democrats take their cues from him.”
