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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Signs of GOP Strength

The Center for the Study of the American Electorate reports:
For the first time in 80 years, Republican turnout in statewide mid-term primaries (for U.S. Senate and governor) exceeded Democratic turnout in a primary turnout season that produced the second lowest turnout ever.

These were among the highlights of a report on mid-term statewide primary turnout based on final and official results for all but one of the 46 states* which held primaries in 2010 released today by American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate.

A long roster of House Democratic incumbents found themselves outraised by GOP challengers during the third quarter — the latest sign that cash is following Republican momentum just weeks from the midterms.

At least 40 Democrats took in less cash than their opponents — a list that ranges from vulnerable freshmen like Alabama's Bobby Bright, Mississippi's Travis Childers, and Nevada's Dina Titus to more senior members like Nick Rahall of West Virginia and Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania.

The Hill reports:

With strong fundraising numbers in some competitive districts that have been leaning Democratic and an IE cash infusion from GOP-friendly outside groups, Republicans appear in position to stretch the House playing field even further ahead of November's midterm elections.

Rep. Gene Taylor's (D-Miss.) seat was considered safe just a few months ago, but his Republican challenger Steven Palazzo posted a solid number in the third quarter, raising more than $311,000. It's not a huge haul, but it should serve to kick Taylor into gear--the incumbent raised just shy of $160,000 from July through September.

Politico sums it up:
More bad polls. More bad fundraising numbers. More dreary talk on the Sunday shows.

It added up to a brutal weekend for Democrats, as the consensus among election analysts, already bearish on the party’s prospects, took a turn for the worse over the past 48 hours.

In the eyes of the experts, the House Democratic majority most likely won’t survive Nov. 2, with political handicappers expanding their predictions to envision the possibility of a Democratic wipeout.

Analyst Stu Rothenberg pegs the number of competitive seats at 100. Charlie Cook says it's 97. Virtually all of those seats are held by Democrats.

Rothenberg is predicting a likely Republican gain of 40 to 50 seats, with 60 seats possible. Republicans need a net pickup of 39 seats to take the House.

One House Democrat, reflecting widespread conversations with his colleagues, guessed Sunday that his party will lose 50 seats. Many, he said, are calling with urgent pleas for more contributions.

The Senate may stay in Democratic hands — but only by the narrowest of margins, so slim that it will make a handful of moderates from both parties the only people who will decide whether anything gets done.