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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Polls on 2010: Conservatives and the Eroding D Base

Ruy Teixeira argues that there has been no swing to the right among registered voters.
Jay Cost says that a higher percentage of voters called themselves conservatives in 2010 than ever before, and that these conservatives were more likely than ever to vote Republican:

Third Way reports:
In a new post-election survey, Third Way and Lincoln Park Strategies polled 1,000 Obama voters who abandoned Democrats in 2010, either by staying home (the “droppers”) or by voting Republican (the “switchers”). This report paints a portrait of these droppers and switchers—the voters that Democrats will need to win again in 2012. Our key findings:

•Droppers are more than the base. One in 3 droppers is conservative, 40% are Independents, and they are split about whether Obama should have done more or did too much.
•For switchers, it’s not just the economy. The economy matters but switchers also overwhelmingly think Democrats are more liberal that they are. Two in three say “too much government spending” was a major reason for their vote.
•Republicans won a chance, not a mandate. Only 20% of switchers say that a major reason for their vote was that “Republicans had better ideas,” and nearly half say Republicans are more conservative than they are.