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Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

CA: Why Whitman Lost

At Capitol Alert, Amy Chance writes:

Adam Mendelsohn, who served as a political consultant to Whitman from February '08 to January '09, said Wednesday he never saw a rationale for her run that voters would understand.

"If you're going to take somebody who's an outsider who has no civic experience at all.....you have to create a really compelling reason for people to vote that person into office," he said. "My personal experience with the campaign often felt like they were approaching it like a marketing project rather than a political campaign."

That approach extended to the campaign's discomfort with the political press corps, he said.

"It was always very difficult to determine what she was comfortable doing and what she was not comfortable doing," Mendelsohn said. "She and her adviser, Henry Gomez, were very, very protective of where they put her and what she was doing. I think she was so over-managed and so over-advised, that she became intimidated by the media. I think they spent more time thinking about everything she could say wrong rather than what she could say correctly."

At the Los Angeles Times, Cathleen Decker writes:

Latinos were more likely than other voters to say it was the governor's race that impelled them to vote, and they sided more than 2 to 1 with Democrat Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman, the Republican whose campaign had been embroiled in a controversy over illegal immigration. Once at the polls, they voted for other Democrats as well.
...

Holding their coastal strength, Democrats ran away with their big counties. Brown carried Los Angeles County, home to 25% of the state's voters, by 31 points, giving him almost 60% of his lead. Republican candidates, including Whitman, did better than Democrats in their traditional interior California strongholds. But the strong Republican counties tend to be heavier on acreage than voters.

...

Democratic successes in the midst of 2010's national Republican renaissance marked a sharp turnabout from how the state behaved during the last major Republican year, in 1994. That year, as Republicans took back Congress, they won in California as well, picking up five of seven statewide offices, including the governorship, and adding legislative seats. This time, Democrats picked up a legislative seat despite Republican gains nationally, and were waiting for uncounted ballots to see whether they lost a congressional seat or two.

The difference between then and now rests on the changes in the California electorate. Those changes also explain the gulf that now exists between California and the nation. California in 1994 was more white and proportionately less Democratic than it is today, thus more similar to the country today. Nationally, non-whites made up only 22% of the Tuesday electorate; in California they made up 38%. Latinos nationally represented 8% of the national electorate, just shy of a third of their power in California. The California and national exit polls were conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of news organizations, including television news networks and the Associated Press.

Tellingly, Latinos in California had a far more negative view of the GOP than other voters — almost 3 in 4 had an unfavorable impression, to 22% favorable. Among all California voters the view of Republicans was negative, but at a closer 61% negative and 32% positive. Latinos had a strongly positive view of Democrats, 58% to 37%, whereas all voters were closely split, 49% to 45%.

"The brand name is still a tremendous liability," said Allan Hoffenblum, a former Republican consultant who runs a nonpartisan election-tracking publication. "People of color are just turned off by the Republican Party."

Jack Chang and David Siders write at the Sacramento Bee:

Brown himself said Wednesday that he benefited from having no major primary opposition. Whitman, on the other hand, fought a bruising and expensive primary battle against Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.

"Those two right there sets the stage," Brown said. "And then thirdly, there's more Democrats than Republicans, and we have a somewhat mildly liberal-leaning decline to state voters."

The 72-year-old former governor added, "And then, of course, you have my sparkling personality."

Timm Herdt writes at the Ventura County Star:

Typically an unknown candidate will take a get-to-know-me tour around the state, talking to any news organization that could help introduce him or her to voters.
A year ago, Whitman could have gone from Chico to San Bernardino doing exactly that, subjecting herself to scores of interviews. Undoubtedly, she would have slipped up in a few, but she would have had plenty of time to recover and the practice would have served her well.
Instead, she gave one coming-out interview — with the Los Angeles Times, the state’s largest news organization — and made a few gaffes. She then retreated.
When it came time in the fall to participate in her first televised debate and to personally appeal to newspaper editorial boards for their endorsements, she was unskilled at answering questions and uncomfortably robotic.