Search This Blog

Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

The 2012 Republican Nomination Contest in Retrospect

Notes for class lecture, November 29, 2012

Early starts and the "next in line" theory:
  • Richard Nixon in 1960 and 1968
  • Ronald Reagan in 1980
  • George H.W. Bush in 1988
  • Bob Dole in 1996
  • John McCain in 2008
Front-runner strategy -- Dan Balz compares Romney's approach in 2008 and 2012:
When Romney lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, his campaign was essentially over. He went on to win elsewhere, but he no longer controlled his own fate. Weakened in South Carolina, he was dependent on Huckabee to block McCain’s strengthening campaign, and Huckabee failed. Flummoxed in Florida, Romney saw all hope for the nomination dissipate with McCain’s victory in the Sunshine State.

Fast-forward to this year and see the differences. Romney’s campaign advisers say their strategy is based on two major assumptions: No state will determine Romney’s fate, and delegates matter. 
The next-in-line candidates who did not run:
Others who did not run:
The candidates who challenged Romney:
  • Perry
  • Cain
  • Gingrich
  • Santorum
  • Bachmann
  • Paul
  • Huntsman
Raise and Spend Big Bucks Early: Campaign Receipts through December 31, 2011:

Romney
56,073,108
Paul
25,901,305
Perry
19,775,136
Gingrich
12,648,565
Bachmann
10,100,742
Huntsman
  5,882,409
Santorum
  2,178,703


It was a race of multiple bounces.

Not in Wayne:  Super PACs:

For Romney: Restore Our Future



For Gingrich: Winning Our Future



For Santorum: Red, White, and Blue Fund


Also not in Wayne:  Debates, Twitter, and YouTube in the 2012 race: