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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Problems for Clinton?

Greg Sargent writes at The Washington Post:
The new poll, which was commissioned by Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund and conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, shows that members of the Rising American Electorate — minorities, millennials, and single women — are significantly less tuned in to next year’s election than GOP-aligned voter groups are.
The poll has some good news for Democrats. The survey, which was taken in four key battleground states — Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin — suggests that in those states, the demographics do favor Dems. That’s because the poll finds that RAE voter groups — who helped drive Obama’s wins — now make up a “majority or near majority of the vote” in all those states. The poll also finds Dems leading in Senate races in two of those states and tied in two others.
But members of the RAE are insufficiently engaged in next year’s election when compared to Republican-aligned voter groups:


But note a couple of huge caveats.  First, there is a highly competitive nomination race on the GOP. Its outcome is uncertain.  Accordingly, it makes sense that it is generating far more interest than the all-but-settled Democratic race.  Second, the GOP had an enthusiasm edge four years ago, but Obama still won.

Key voters dubbed “Wal-Mart moms” have economic concerns that may transcend partisan lines in the 2016 election, and they're highlighting potential problems for top Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump ahead of the first presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire in February.
In focus groups conducted Tuesday night, likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire and likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa cited the national deficit, the U.S. debt to China, insufficient wages, student loans, and dysfunctional government among their leading concerns.
...
One caution for Clinton, Newhouse said, is that the Democratic focus group was “less engaged.”
“There wasn’t an embrace of what a Hillary Clinton presidency would look like and that it was good for them,” he said.
Four of those 10 women said they are thinking of supporting Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Half said they believed Sanders might defeat Clinton in the primary. Several of the women described Clinton with positive words such as “strong,” “lovable,” and “intelligent.” But some of the women said they didn't trust Clinton and don’t think they have much in common with her. They used words such as “shady” and “shifty” to describe her. Most said they did not feel a special affinity for her because she’s a woman.
...
“In the beginning I’m thinking, ‘Trump might be good,’” said Jill, a married mother of one who works as a kitchen manager. “Then he started talking,” she said. “He’s so insulting to everyone.”
Another participant, Johanna, a customer service worker and mother of two, said her 5-year-old asked if Trump was “joking” because “you can’t talk to people like that.”