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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Trump Is Not Attracting Voters to the GOP: He Is Driving Them Away

Emily Guskin and Scott Clement report at The Washington Post:
The data show Trump’s support didn’t peak in high-turnout states. Among those states with the largest turnout increases compared with 2008 -- 85 percent or more -- Trump garnered 34.3 percent of the vote, lower than his average overall (34.9 percent). He performed slightly better in states with a moderate turnout increase, and worse in states where turnout did not rise as much. The comparison does not differ much when looking at 2012 turnout data; Trump won 32.9 percent in states that had the largest turnout increases, which is below his cross-state average.
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State-level comparisons are fairly rough, so we asked Post voting data guru Ted Melnik to investigate county-level data for any evidence of Trump-driven surge. He found the opposite: In primary contests, counties that were more supportive of Trump had slightly smaller increases in turnout compared with 2008. The correlation was negative but fairly small, at -0.13.

What do all these numbers mean? Basically, Republicans’ turnout surge is not being caused by a hypodermic shot of Trump voters into the primary electorate. Non-Trump Republicans also have been inspired to vote at higher rates -- some probably in opposition to Trump and others simply because the contest is competitive.
Ben Kasimar reports at The Hill:
Donald Trump’s controversial attacks on Heidi Cruz are spotlighting what could be one of his biggest vulnerabilities in the general election: his poll numbers with women.

The GOP front-runner has faced accusations of sexism throughout the presidential race, with members of both parties denouncing remarks he has made about Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly and former GOP presidential candidate Carly Fiorina.


A new CNN poll released Thursday, taken before the spat with rival Ted Cruz over his wife, found that 73 percent of registered female voters in the United States had an unfavorable view of Trump. That’s in line with a Reuters poll from last week that found more than half of American women hold a “very unfavorable” view of the billionaire.
Cathleen Decker reports at The Los Angeles Times:
A quarter of California Republican voters polled said they would refuse to vote for Trump in November if he is the party's nominee. Almost one-third of those backing Trump's leading competitor, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, said they would not cast a ballot for Trump. Voters who back Trump, meanwhile, are critical of Cruz, with only half holding a favorable impression of him.
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Overall, about three-quarters of California voters polled had an unfavorable view of Trump, an eye-opening level for a front-runner. Even among Republicans, only 51% had a favorable impression of Trump, while 43% had an unfavorable view.
And the unfavorable views were expressed with vehemence. Two-thirds of nonpartisan voters, who are essential to any chance of success for a member of the Republican minority in California, had a “very unfavorable” view of Trump. Seventy-seven percent of Latinos, 74% of those under age 50, 67% of women, 61% of men, and more than 3 in 5 voters of all education and income ranks had a very negative view of him.
“He's an egomaniac who does very stupid things,” Barry Kolom, a Los Angeles optometrist, said of Trump. “He shoots from the hip; he has no filters. I just think he's a loose cannon.”