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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Friday, March 31, 2017

Precinct Data and Education in 2016


An election expert at Decision Desk HQ spent a year putting together what the group says is the most detailed map available of the 2016 election: A national precinct-level map that is so granular a graphic at this scale was never produced for the 2012 election, according to Decision Desk HQ contributor Ryne Rohla in a post presenting his work.
The hard work paid off in the map, which appears below and shows how President Donald Trump won the upper Midwest and carved out votes into the South up to the "Black Belt."
An interactive version can also be used to zoom-in and see how your neighborhood voted. Decision Desk HQ had to temporarily take down the map due to high traffic.
Rohla writes:
For every race and ethnicity, a higher proportion of college degree holders correlated with a higher swing toward Clinton, and vice versa for Trump. As I’ll delve more deeply into in another post, there exists a high degree of heterogeneity among every racial and ethnic group when it comes to their swing behavior in the 2016 General Election, and attempts to paint groups with a wide brush belie a tremendous diversity of opinion and belief. The weight of evidence implies economics, education, and class divided people far more than their skin color in terms of their reactions to Clinton and Trump, and they did so in a systematic and symmetric manner; in this way, we’re all more alike than different.