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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Monday, November 26, 2018

Big State Updates

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race

California

  • Democrats swept all statewide races.
  • Democrats netted six House seats, maybe seven if Valadao loses, and the late vote is trending against him.
  • Democrats won a supermajority in the State Senate with at least 28 seats to Republicans' 11. And Tom Umberg is leading Janet Nguyen by nearly 2,000 votes. Umberg will probably win.
  • Democrats kept their supermajority in the Assembly, winning at least 60 seats to Republicans' 19. In the 77th district, incumbent Republican Brian Maienschein has a slight lead over Sunday Gover but could lose as the last votes come in.

In The Weekly Standard, Michael Warren writes about Orange County:
“Make no mistake about it, this was a referendum on Trump-run government, and voters in Orange County, like most of American suburbia, loudly chose divided government,” says Rob Stutzman, a Sacramento-based Republican who worked on Arnold Schwarzenegger’s successful 2003 gubernatorial campaign. “Orange County going blue has been a slow-moving lava flow that’s been visible for a couple decades. The Trump midterm accelerated its progress.”
New York

  • Democrats swept all statewide races.
  • Democrats flipped three Republican House seats.D
  • Democrats held their supermajority in the Assembly, winning 106 seats to Republicans' 43 and the one Independence Party member who caucuses with the Democrats.
  • Democrats gained control of the chamber and expanded their majority in the State Senate, winning 40 seats to Republicans' 23.
It is the party of Theodore Roosevelt, Nelson A. Rockefeller and, yes, President Trump. It led the New York State Senate for almost all of the last 75 years. And its backers include such deep-pocketed, well-connected interests as charter schools and New York City real estate moguls.

But after an Election Day shellacking, the New York Republican Party has hit bottom. The party lost a whopping eight seats in the State Senate, evaporating its razor-thin majority, and got pounded by Democrats in every statewide race, extending a losing streak that dates to 2002.
The best that might be said for the Republicans was that they did not lose any ground in the State Assembly, where they are outnumbered by 64 seats. So come January, when the new Legislature is sworn in, not a single Republican in Albany will have so much as a committee chairmanship.
...

The news on a federal level was no better. Democrats claimed victory over three Republican House incumbents, including Representative Dan Donovan of Staten Island, leaving New York City without a single Republican representative. All told, 21 of the state’s 27 House members will be Democrats, as are both of its senators. (Senator Kirsten Gillibrand easily won her second full term on Election Day.) And one of the six Republican House members — Chris Collins of the Buffalo area — is under federal indictment.