In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race. Campaign finance is a big part of the story.
Interest groups like to go with winners. The flow of money tells you which side seems to be winning. This year, it is the Democrats.
Stockbrokers and hedge fund managers continued to back Democrats through the first 21 months of the 2010 election cycle — giving Democrats 51 percent of contributions — but as it became clear Republicans would be storming both chambers, contributions shifted right before the election. The industry gave more than 69 percent of contributions to Republicans in the October 2010 pre-general FEC filing period, just in time for a GOP takeover.
During the 2018 election cycle, the 2010 swing is happening again, only this time in the direction of Democrats.
After giving 52 percent of funds to Democrats through the first 21 months of the election cycle, the industry gave 71 percent of its $7.86 million in campaign contributions to Democrats in the most recent pre-general election FEC filing period from Oct. 1 to Oct. 17.
Sixteen of the top 20 recipients of investment group affiliates are now Democrats, with Sen. Claire McCaskill taking the top spot at nearly $2 million.