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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Monday, November 5, 2018

Dems Over Reps in Independent Spending

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race.  Campaign finance is a big part of the story.

From the Campaign Finance Institute:
Details Available on CFI's General Election IE Tool

Independent expenditures (IEs) reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) for the general election show groups supporting Democratic candidates outspending Republican efforts two-to-one in the last seven days (Oct. 29-Nov. 4), $82.4 million to $40.5 million. The advantage is clear in both the House ($43.7 to $20 million) and the Senate ($38.7 to $20.5 million).

Overall, for the entire general election, IEs have exceeded $1 billion dollars, compared to $820 million in 2016. This is based on a Campaign Finance Institute (CFI) analysis of data supplied by the FEC. Detailed data on all races with independent expenditures, and on the organizations making the IEs, are available on CFI's website via these links: House |Senate | Spenders.

Eighteen House races saw spending of over $1 million in the last week. The top five of those all saw over $2 million spent. Each is a Republican held district rated as a "toss-up" and has a cumulative total of over $10 million in IEs. One big mover in the final week was FL-6, the open seat vacated by Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DiSantis, where $1.9 million was spent out of $4.1 million cumulative. $1.6 million of that was supporting the Democratic candidate and came from Independence USA PAC, a Super PAC associated with Michael Bloomberg.
In the Senate, there were no surprises in the last week as the top five races are all "toss-up" races that have a cumulative total of over $50 million in IEs for the general election. Below these top races there was surprise last minute spending in both Michigan and Minnesota. $2 million was spent in Michigan, all aimed at supporting Republican John James bid to oust Senator Debbie Stabenow. The $2 million spent this last week represents 55% of all the IEs in this race. In Minnesota $1.3 million was spent, mostly to support Democratic Senator Tina Smith, which represented 64% of all the IEs made in the Minnesota race cumulatively.