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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

The GOP's California Collapse


When the next Congress convenes, Republicans will control at most eight of California’s 53 seats in the House of Representatives, down from 14 before the election. That number could fall to seven if GOP Representative David Valadao, who represents a Central Valley seat, cannot maintain a narrow lead over Democratic T. J. Cox that has steadily dwindled as officials have counted absentee and provisional ballots since Election Day.
Even if Valadao holds on, which looks increasingly doubtful, the eight Republican seats would leave the GOP controlling only 15.1 percent of California’s Congressional delegation, the nation’s largest. That would be the smallest share of the state’s Congressional delegation that Republicans have controlled since 1883, according to figures provided by the California Target Book, a non-partisan publication that analyzes state elections.
Assemblyman Chad Mayes at CALmatters:
In 2015, I was part of a group of Republican leaders who engaged in a multi-year process that researched policy issues and voter trends, did polling and focus groups and sifted through mountains of data.
Our objective was to better understand California and determine why the Republican Party has been on the decline and identify a path forward. What caused the decline? Did the GOP:
  • Alienate ethnic voters starting with support for Proposition 187, the 1994 initiative that was viewed as anti-immigrant, and opposition to affirmative action?
  • Had the LGBTQ community simply written off Republicans as intolerant over their opposition to gay marriage?
  • Were younger voters turned off by Republicans’ denial of climate science?
  • Was the so-called war on women’s health repelling female voters?
  • Was the party viewed as too loyal to business at the expense of working families?
The collective answer to these questions is “yes.”
CA Democrats are having a happy Thanksgiving morning:

 U.S. Representative District 21 - Districtwide Results
CandidateVotesPercent
 TJ Cox
(Party Preference: DEM)
54,266
49.8%
*David G. Valadao
(Party Preference: REP)
54,713
50.2%
* Incumbent


CandidateVotesPercent
 Tom Umberg
(Party Preference: DEM)
130,739
50.4%
*Janet Nguyen
(Party Preference: REP)
128,877
49.6%