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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

A Bad Day for Trump

In  Defying the Oddswe discuss public perceptions of TrumpAfter yesterday's cave-in on the shutdown and the arrest of Roger Stone, those perceptions are probably not going to turn positive right now.

As Jonathan Swan puts it: He blinks; he disappoints the people who still love him; he gets no credit for reopening the government, given he already took credit for the shutdown; and we’re back where we started after 35 days of pointlessness.The shutdown not only wasted a month of Trump's presidency, but it accelerates a months-long losing streak:
Trump is being outfoxed and outplayed by Speaker Pelosi:
  • He ended the shutdown without getting anything obvious in return, after caving earlier in the week to her refusal to hold the State of the Union address in the House chamber.
  • "Pelosi 2, Trump 0," a senior administration official instantly texted me.
  • Drudge's banner, with a Trump pic: "WALLED IN."
  • Swan tweeted: "A former White House official texts me, unsolicited: 'Trump looks pathetic...he just ceded his presidency to Nancy Pelosi.'"
  • Maggie Haberman tweeted: "Not only did Trump alienate moderates with a shutdown, he upset his core 35 percent by caving — and, most significantly for 2020, did it all as Democrats held together on a major issue fight."
Yesterday's indictment of Roger Stone references "senior Trump Campaign officials," "a senior Trump campaign official" and "a high-ranking member of the Trump Campaign":
  • A "senior Trump Campaign official was directed to contact STONE about any additional [WikiLeaks] releases and what other damaging information [WikiLeaks] had regarding the Clinton Campaign."
The midterm results left Trump weaker in battleground states than many people in his orbit seem to realize.
  • As Jim VandeHei and I pointed out in November: "[A]ll the big trends are working against Trump and the GOP."