In Defying the Odds, we discuss demographic gaps in the 2016 election. The forthcoming update will include a chapter on the 2018 midterms.
Several studies have found that Republican support of Proposition 187 and other anti-immigrant efforts alienated white and Latino voters in California from the Republican Party. One of these studies, published in The American Journal of Political Science, points out that Proposition 187 actually reversed the trend of Latinos increasingly supporting Republicans, with “no counterbalancing gain in party supporters from other groups, particularly non-Hispanic whites.” The authors conclude that the “results raise serious questions about the long-term efficacy of racially divisive strategies for electoral gain.” This study should be required reading for Trump Republicans.
The Hispanic portion of the United States population today is similar to the portion in California in the early 1990s. About 20 percent of the country is Hispanic; in 1990, 26 percent of California’s population was. You don’t have to be a political wizard to understand that alienating growing blocs of voters — not just Latinos, but also other immigrants and younger people — is bad political strategy.