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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Saturday, June 15, 2019

Pocketbook Politics

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the tax and economics issue in the 2016 campaign.  The update  -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. and explains why the Trump tax cut backfired on Republicans.

Federal tax payments by big businesses are falling much faster than anticipated in the wake of Republicans’ tax cuts, providing ammunition to Democrats who are calling for corporate tax increases.
The U.S. Treasury saw a 31 percent drop in corporate tax revenues last year, almost twice the decline official budget forecasters had predicted. Receipts were projected to rebound sharply this year, but so far they’ve only continued to fall, down by almost 9 percent or $11 billion.
Though business profits remain healthy and the economy is strong, total corporate taxes are at the lowest levels seen in more than 50 years.
t the same time, overall taxes paid by individuals under the new tax law are up so far this year by 3 percent, thanks to higher wages and salaries, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Last year tax payments by individuals went up 4 percent.
Sarah Min at CBS:
The longest economic expansion in U.S. history could soon come to an end, according to a survey of chief financial officers released Wednesday. Their fear is that growing economic uncertainty and trade wars could finally halt the record streak of U.S. GDP growth, now barely a month shy of its 10th year.

Nearly half, or 48%, of chief financial officers in the U.S. are predicting a recession by mid-2020, according to the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey, which is conducted quarterly. And more than two-thirds, 69%, are predicting a downturn by the end of next year.
"It looks likely that an economic recession is on the horizon for 2020," John Graham, finance professor at Duke University, said in a video statement.