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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Monday, June 10, 2019

Biden Strategy

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the early stages of the 2016 campaign, when many candidates were unknowns.  The update  -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.  We are now in the early stages of the 2020 race.

Natasha Korecki and Marc Caputo at Politico:
He brags about his ability to get along with Republicans. He’s not in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s good graces. His campaign has sent mixed messages on climate change and abortion funding.
If it seems like Joe Biden is running for the nomination of a different Democratic Party than the rest of his rivals, that’s because he is.

From his schedule to his messaging to his policy positions, the former vice president is carving a divergent path through the primaries based on a theory that few of his rivals appear to believe — that the Democratic base isn’t nearly as liberal or youthful as everyone thinks.
It’s a high-risk strategy at a time when the progressive wing is pulsing with energy. There is a danger of looking disconnected from the rising Obama coalition, or seeming to adhere to an outdated view of the party.
But so far it’s working. Since his April 25 launch, despite talk that his polling numbers would slide once he entered the race because he was out of step with the current party mood, Biden has instead led in every national survey. He sprinted out of the gate with a post-announcement 6-point bump and still hold leads in recent early state polls.
Harry Enten at CNN:
Our new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom's new Iowa caucuses poll conducted by Selzer and Co. shows Joe Biden at 24%, Bernie Sanders at 16%, Elizabeth Warren at 15%, Pete Buttigieg at 14% and Kamala Harris at 7% among likely caucusgoers.
It's the first high quality Iowa poll conducted since Biden entered the race and shows him in a tenuous position. Buttigieg and Warren are doing better than other polls in the state have suggested.