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Defying the Odds

Defying the Odds
New book about the 2016 election.

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

The Harris Surge

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the early stages of the 2016 campaign, when many candidates were unknowns.  The update  -- recently published --includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.  We are now in the early stages of the 2020 race.

After Democratic presidential contenders duked it out over two nights of debates, former Vice President Joseph Biden hits his lowest number yet in the Democratic primary race with 22 percent of the vote among Democrats and Democratic leaners, virtually tied with California Sen. Kamala Harris who has 20 percent of the vote. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren follows at 14 percent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 13 percent, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 4 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University National Poll released today. No other candidate tops 3 percent.

This compares to a June 11, 2019 Quinnipiac University Poll which had Biden at 30 percent, Sanders getting 19 percent, Warren with 15 percent, Buttigieg at 8 percent, and Harris with 7 percent.
CNN:
Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have made steep gains after the first Democratic presidential debate, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. shows, with former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over the field shrinking to a narrow 5 points.
The results indicate a significant tightening in the race for the Democratic nomination.
RELATED: Full poll results
The poll, conducted after the two-night debate, finds 22% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents backing Biden for the party's presidential nomination, 17% Harris, 15% Warren and 14% Sen. Bernie Sanders. No one else in the 23-person field tested hits 5%.
USAT:
The first Democratic debate has reshaped the presidential field in Iowa, surging support for California Sen. Kamala Harris, undercutting the standing of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and raising questions about the solidity of former vice president Joe Biden's frontrunner status.
In a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll, Biden continues to lead the field, backed by 24% of those who say they are likely to attend the Democratic caucuses in Iowa that open the presidential contests next year. But Harris has jumped to second place, at 16%, leapfrogging over Sanders, whose support sagged to single digits. At 9%, he finished fourth, behind Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%.