Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state elections.
The latest Berkeley IGS Poll completed last week finds that the proportion of California voters who support recalling Governor Gavin Newsom stands at 36%, unchanged from late January. However, a larger proportion of voters now say they intend to vote NO in the recall (49%), up four points from three months ago. Another 15% remain undecided.
Opinions about removing Newsom from office continue to be sharply divided along partisan and ideological lines. But the poll also finds some striking regional differences.For example, while greater than two-to-one majorities of voters in the state’s two major urban hubs, the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County, are lining up on the NO side,supporters outnumber opponents in several parts of the state, including the Inland Empire,the Central Valley,and the sparsely populated NorthCoast/Sierra region.
The recall election has yet to arousea great deal of interest among the state’s overall electorate, with fewer than half (46%)expressing high levels of interest. In addition, early interest is heavily skewed toward the state’s GOP voters, with more than twice as many Republicans as Democrats orNo Party Preference voters expressing high interest.
None of four prominent Republicans currently running in the replacement electionare generating much support among the overall electorate at this stage. When voters are asked whether they would be inclined or not inclined to vote for each candidate, fewer than one in four voters statewide say they are currently disposed toback them. Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and former gubernatorial candidate John Cox receive the largest shares of voters inclined to support their candidacies (22%). However, in each case more than twice as many are not inclined to do so and about three in ten have no opinion. Former congressman Doug Ose receives the backing of 14% in this setting, although 48% of voters are not inclined to back his candidacy. Attracting the least support of the four Republicans measured is reality TV personality Caitlyn Jenner. Just 6% of the state’s registered voters say they are inclined to back her candidacy, while 76% are not.
Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed a second round of $600 state stimulus checks on Monday to hasten California’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, hoping to expand the payments from low-income residents to also include middle-class families, and noting that doing so would ensure benefits for 2 out of 3 state residents.
The proposal to deliver $8 billion in new cash payments to millions of Californians is part of a $100-billion economic stimulus plan made possible in part by a budget that has swelled with a significant windfall of tax revenues, a surplus the governor put at $75.7 billion.