Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall.
Democratic recall ballot returns continuing to outpace their share of the electorate, per @Political_Data tracker:
Dems comprise 46.5% of electorate and 55% of returned ballots
GOP is 24.1/23, No Party Preference at 23.3/22
Jonathan Brown at Capitol Weekly:
I’m not here to say Gavin Newsom is definitely going to prevail – though I expect so. But I want to say a few words about “motivation.”
When my daughter starts school next week, I will be waking up early to make her a lunch every day. I will do so grudgingly. My motivation will be quite low. However, during the last (remote) school year, I sampled a few school lunches. They were dreadful – so much pre-packaged crap of dubious nutritional value (pre-sliced apples in sealed cellophane, WHY?!). So I will make a sandwich and pack some snacks each day.
Similarly, is it that hard to imagine that a Democrat wouldn’t fill out and send in a short ballot with a push reminding them that it will prevent a Donald Trump acolyte from ascending to the top spot in state government? They only need to be highly motivated for a fleeting moment.
Indeed, Republican motivation is extremely high. In a recent survey, I found 91% of Republican voters were “very motivated” to vote in the recall election. However, two-thirds of Democrats also described themselves as “very motivated.” In sheer numbers, more California Democrats are “very motivated” than California Republicans.
