Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
1. Trying to prevent retirements. The White House is targeting several Republicans in politically divided swing districts and urging them not to ditch their seats or run for higher office.Incumbent lawmakers with established fundraising and campaigning networks are almost always better positioned to win than any challengers. It has sent a clear message to New York Rep. Mike Lawler that Trump wants him to stay in the House rather than run for governor.
2. Spending big. Trump has built a $500 million-plus political apparatus, and he's already unloading some of it with 2026 in mind.Securing American Greatness, a pro-Trump group that works with the White House, has launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign touting his economic agenda in the districts of eight vulnerable House Republicans. Trump also has a leadership PAC, Never Surrender, planning to give directly to Republican candidates.
3. Taking primary challengers off the table. Besides Lawler, Trump has endorsed a slate of swing-district GOP incumbents in a series of moves aimed at shutting down would-be primary challengers before they get off the ground, people close to the president tell Axios....
4. Raising gobs more money. Trump is the GOP's most powerful fundraiser, and he's begun helping the party fill its coffers.He headlined an April dinner benefiting the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) that raked in more than $35 million.
5. Ramping up recruiting. Trump's political operation and the NRCC are seeking out candidates in swing-district contests with no incumbents.Their goal is to get the party to coalesce around a Trump-and-GOP-backed candidate to avoid a bloody primary, a Trump ally said.
