Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. The early signs in the 2026 midterms do not favor Republicans.
Senate Republicans are concerned that a public backlash to President Trump’s handling of the economy and his aggressive deportation policies could give rise to a Democratic wave that not only sweeps away the House Republican majority, but also threatens their own three-seat majority.
The latest alarm bell rang over the weekend when Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet won a state Senate seat in North Texas that President Trump won by 17 points in 2024, a stunning upset that GOP senators say should serve as a “wake-up call” heading into November.
One GOP senator who attended a Tuesday briefing at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) said concern over the approaching midterms “should be very, very high.”
The lawmaker called Saturday’s loss in the Texas special election “a wake-up call” and said Republican senators in battleground states, such as Sen. Susan Collins (R) in Maine and retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in North Carolina, have repeatedly warned Senate colleagues that the party faces a “deteriorating” political environment.
“Senators are saying more and more loudly that they’re very, very concerned about the environment, that it’s continuing to deteriorate. They say it over and over again,” the senator said of discussions within the GOP conference about “political headwinds” facing GOP candidates.
