Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
In 2020, Trump's ineptitude cost the GOP control of both Georgia Senate seats, and thus control of the chamber. He did the same in 2022.
Once again this year, Trump could directly cost the GOP control of the Senate.
- In North Carolina, he attacked incumbent Thom Tillis, who would have been a heavy favorite for reelection. Tillis withdrew, and Democrat Roy Cooper is likely to take the open seat.
- In Texas, John Cornyn could have cruised to victory. Trump endorsed the crooked Ken Paxton, who could lose to Talarico.
- In Georgia, Governor Kemp could have defeated Ossoff. But there was no way Trump would support someone who did not stand with him on election denialism. Trump endorsed scandal-ridden Mike Collins, who will probably lose to Ossoff.
Stef Kight and Hans Nichols at Axios:
Zoom out: Trump has repeatedly forced Republicans to grapple with policies that aggravate their constituencies or collide with their own ideological convictions.His plan to import up to 300,000 metric tons of beef tariff-free for 90 days inflamed GOP lawmakers in red states. More than a dozen GOP senators publicly criticized the move, warning it would hurt American cattle ranchers.
Imposing higher tariffs on Canadian goods threatened to bring a trade war to two must-win border states: Maine and Michigan. [Not to mention Ohio and Iowa, too!]
And his call Monday to target Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier could have outsized economic implications in Kansas, a red state with an increasingly competitive Senate race. Trump ally Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) was forced to break with Trump over the call to boycott. Bombardier is a key employer in Kansas.
Republicans are taking an à la carte approach to data centers, which have suddenly become a political liability. Candidates in both parties have been scrambling to distance themselves from the industry.But Trump isn't brooking any nuance on the issue, calling communities that oppose data centers "backwards and poor." He doubled down four days later.
...
Trump is also restarting hostilities with Iran, dashing any GOP hopes that gas prices will drop before November.
People around Trump know he's self-destructive. They don't even bother to push back anymore. Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei at Axios:
For nearly a decade, Republicans acquiesced to nearly every Trump demand and idea — and rationalized it by saying his instincts proved smarter than theirs. Now, many no longer trust those instincts. But they find it just as futile to push back against virtually anything he wants.
- Start a war without an endgame? OK.
- Post a cartoon of you — wielding a hockey stick and sporting a Trump-branded USA jersey — towering over Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, sprawled on the ice, and telling him to "GET UP"? On it.
- Toss together an egocentric, first-ever Republican midterm convention that many endangered candidates don't want? Sounds like a good plan, boss! (Gavels in today in Dallas at 4 p.m. ET, in fact.)
- Oh, you want to speak both nights? Done!
- Make ads featuring you when your popularity is near its all-time low? You came to the right place, sir.
- Make the midterms a referendum on you? Check.
- Spend precious time obsessing about ballroom construction, and gilding and marbleizing the White House? You are the new Caesar Augustus.
