A Debatable Farewell

At Bloomberg News, Albert Hunt bids farewell to Representative David Obey (D-WI) and Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT). The article is open to debate. "For a combined three-quarters of a century, David Obey and Christopher Dodd walked the halls of Congress; they are both retiring this year on a high."

• Obey chaired the Appropriations Committee. In 2010, Congress failed to pass a single regular appropriations bill. Hunt cites the stimulus as an Obey success, but many would disagree. For instance, Vermont's stimulus czar recalls: "The stimulus failed to keep the national unemployment rate below 8%, as had been promised. Overall, the stimulus had a negligible effect on overall unemployment, although it saved government jobs (temporarily) at the expense of private employment. Counts of `jobs created or saved' are meaningless. Jobs lost due to higher taxes, national debt or government crowding-out were not counted."
• Dodd announced his retirement after his corporate ties caused his popularity to plummet, making reelection unlikely. He leaves the Senate with a majority of Connecticutians disapproving of his job performance.

Incumbents in 2010

On the Chris Matthews show the other night, Charlie Cook and Ron Brownstein noted a remarkable turnaround from 2006 and 2008, where Republican incumbents suffered greatly:

MATTHEWS: Can a Republican lose this year coming up? Can a Republican incumbent lose any race anywhere next year?

COOK: I would not be surprised to see no Republican incumbent, House or Senate, lose.

MATTHEWS: How about a Democrat? We‘ve got five vulnerable people here, Specter, Lincoln, Bennet, Dodd. You say Dodd is the most vulnerable. Who is the second-most vulnerable?

COOK: Reid—

BROWNSTEIN: Reid or Lincoln. Lincoln is in a situation where, again, it‘s more generic than personal. This is a state kind of filled with the kind of voters that have been most resistance to the direction Obama is setting. I think that‘s a real problem.

I think Colorado‘s a real challenge, too, because Bennet is operating, to some extent, as the shadow of the governor, Bill Ritter, who has a very uneven first term, some successes, a lot of disappointments. He could face a very—and Obama‘s approval there was dropping before the Fall.

As I have noted elsewhere, national parties in recent decades have played "sack the quarterback."  That is, they try to take out the other side's congressional leaders by defeating them at the polls (Tom Foley, Tom Daschle), or by exploiting ethics issues (Jim Wright, Newt Gingrich) and gaffes (Trent Lott).  As we point out in Epic Journey (pp. 183-184), Harry Reid targeted Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell for defeat in 2008.  McConnell survived, and is eager to strike back by taking down Reid in 2010.

AIG Money

ABC reports that major politicians got AIG-related campaign contributions. Will they give the money to the Treasury?

A list of recipients is here. The Center for Responsive Politics adds some detail:

In the last 20 years American International Group (AIG) has contributed more than $9 million to federal candidates and parties through PAC and individual contributions. That's enough to rank AIG on OpenSecrets.org's Heavy Hitters list, which profiles the top 100 contributors of all time. Over time, AIG hasn't shown
an especially partisan streak, splitting evenly the $9.3 million it has contributed since 1989. In the last election cycle, though, 68 percent of contributions associated with the company went to Democrats. Two senators who chair committees charged with overseeing AIG and the insurance industry, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), are among the top recipients of AIG contributions. Baucus chairs the Senate Finance Committee and has collected more money from AIG in his congressional career than from any other company--$91,000. And with more than $280,000, AIG has been the fourth largest contributor to Dodd, who chairs the Senate's banking committee. President Obama and his rival in last year's election, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), are also high on the list of top recipients.