Campaign Mechanics and Campaign Effects

In a paper at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Associatin, Seth Masket of the University of Denver emphasizes the significance of campaign organization in 2008:

[The] presence of a county-level campaign office was associated with post-caucus delegate gains by the Democratic candidates. I also find that the counties in which the Obama campaign had established field offices during the general election saw a disproportionate Democratic surge, and that this field office-induced surge was enough to flip three states from Republican toDemocratic.

Turnout Did Not Increase in 2008

Michael McDonald has analyzed census data to find that the much-hyped increase in turnout did not take place.

The Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration supplement confirms that African-American and youth voter turnout increased between 2004 and 2008. The statistics from the survey indicate that the 2008 electorate became more representative of the American citizenry. Disparities in yurnout rates among various demographic categories decreased between 2004 and 2008.

The CPS survey indicates that the national turnout rate and registration rate declined a slight 0.2 percentage points between 2004 and 2008. Using estimates of the voting-eligible population and the number of people who voted, I previously reported that the turnout rate increased by 1.6 percentage points between 2004 and 2008. I thus believe that the CPS decline is more apparent than real. The CPS is a survey and is prone to both statistical and non-statistical survey methodology errors, just like any other survey. When there are small changes in statistics from one election to the next, these survey errors are more likely to produce a discrepancy like the one here whereby the actual turnout rate increased slightly and the CPS turnout rate decreased slightly.

Obama and Polarization

From the Pew Research Center:

For all of his hopes about bipartisanship, Barack Obama has the most polarized early job approval ratings of any president in the past four decades. The 61-point partisan gap in opinions about Obama's job performance is the result of a combination of high Democratic ratings for the president -- 88% job approval among Democrats -- and relatively low approval ratings among Republicans (27%).

Busted Boomers

A nice turn of phrase from Frank Micciche, managing director of the Next Social Contract Initiative at the New America Foundation.

Despite having plowed significant portions of their paychecks into age-appropriate financial vehicles at the urging of investment gurus, economists and government officials, these folks face years longer in the workplace than planned, provided they can keep their job or find a new one, and serious doubts about their ability to sustain anything remotely resembling their current lifestyle as they grow old. Panic is not too strong a word to describe their overall mind-set. Whichever political party can develop a message to address the anxieties of the Busted Boomers will have a distinct advantage in next year's midterm congressional contests and the 2012 presidential race.

Palin's Problems

Sarah Palin came out of the 2008 election with some political challenges, and things have not gotten better for her lately. From AP's Anne Sutton:

In her home state, she's drawn fire from Republican legislators on the state's use of federal stimulus funds, from Democrats on her state Senate nominee and from Alaska Natives for her choice for attorney general.

As Andy Barr suggests in The Politico, she's had trouble at the national level as well.

A seemingly unending series of public relations gaffes has Sarah Palin loyalists frustrated and worried she is diminishing her stature. And they blame an inner circle they say is composed of not-ready-for-primetime players.

If she aspires to a seat in the Senate or a return appearance on a national ticket, these problems are serious. The best way for her to recover is simply to do a good job as governor. The worst way is to keep complaining about her treatment in the 2008 campaign.

UPDATE: Josh Putnam's comment below makes an important point: Palin's standing in Alaska is still good enough for her to recover from her current trouble. But she is not helping herself by airing her family woes.

UPDATE: And those woes just keep getting worse.

Fuzzy

ABC and CNN use similar language in reporting on the recent drive by Organizing for America (Obama 2.0) to get pledges of support for the president's agenda.

ABC: "Fuzzy Math and the Obama Army?"

CNN: "Fuzzy math in Organizing for America's pledge drive"

Dana Milbank of The Washington Post explains:

CNN and the Huffington Post dutifully reported the DNC's claim of 642,000 pledges. Network cameras and the BBC showed up to film the operation. "We had one of the big printers downstairs smoking last night," party spokesman Brad Woodhouse said.

In fact, the canvassing of Obama's vaunted e-mail list of 13 million people resulted in just 114,000 pledges -- a response rate of less than 1 percent. Workers gathered 100,000 more from street canvassing. The DNC got to 642,000 by making three photocopies of each pledge so that each signer's senators and representative could get one.

Epic Journey: A Brief Review

Here's a useful book, by three academics, for all readers wishing to further understand the 2008 presidential campaign—and for those who think they already understand it! Although a Democrat was expected to win the presidency, the journey to that outcome was full of surprises; back stories, circumstances, strategies, and results are all described and objectively analyzed here. There is also a chapter on the congressional and state elections, and a conclusion—about the future. All readers will come away feeling as clearheaded as these writers, a tribute to their work.— Margaret Heilbrun, Library Journal