Romney

Byron York nicely sums up why Mitt Romney is probably running again:

So if you list the things politicians do when they're in the early stages of a presidential run -- well, Romney qualifies.
Political action committee? Check.
Fundraising for GOP candidates? Check.
Courting party activists? Check.
Profile-raising book? Check.
TV appearances? Check.

But Andy Barr explains an obstacle that did not loom as large in the 2008 campaign:

Three years ago, Romney was heralded for his innovative effort to institute near-universal health care in his state. But now that the issue has emerged as a partisan fault line and the Massachusetts plan has provided some guidance for Democratic reform efforts, Romney finds himself bruised and on the defensive as the GOP rallies around opposition to President Barack Obama’s plans.

Positive Signs for the GOP

As we describe in Epic Journey, President Obama and his party enjoyed stunning success with fundraising in 2008. But now the Republicans seem to be doing a little better. According to the Washington Post:

As the battle over President Obama's effort to overhaul the health-care system reached a fever pitch this summer, the three national Republican committees combined to bring in $1.7 million more than their Democratic counterparts in August. The pair of Democratic committees tasked with raising money for House and Senate candidates -- and doing so at a time when the party holds its strongest position on Capitol Hill in a generation -- have watched their receipts plummet by a combined 20 percent with little more than a year to go before the November 2010 midterm elections.

The polls also show a shift in the political breeze. Gallup reports:

The Republican Party's image -- quite tattered in the first few months after the 2008 elections -- has seen some recent improvement. Forty percent of Americans now hold a favorable view of the Republicans, up from 34% in May. The Republicans still trail the Democrats on this popularity measure, as 51% of Americans now view the Democrats favorably. With the Democrats' favorable rating dipping slightly since last November, their advantage has narrowed.

One reason may be increased attention to terrorism, an issue where the GOP has at least a modest advantage. Gallup again:

Americans continue to give the Republican Party a slight edge over the Democratic Party -- 49% vs. 42% -- in their perceptions of the party that will better protect the United States from international terrorism and military threats. The Republicans' edge on this issue is unchanged from last year but has diminished from earlier in the decade.

Economic conservatism may also work to the party's advantage. Still more Gallup:

Americans are more likely today than in the recent past to believe that government is taking on too much responsibility for solving the nation's problems and is over-regulating business. New Gallup data show that 57% of Americans say the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to businesses and individuals, and 45% say there is too much government regulation of business. Both reflect the highest such readings in more than a decade.

Filling Gaps in the White House Website, Part 20

Apparently, the White House has largely abandoned the practice of posting interview transcripts. Not one of yesterday's "Full Ginsburg" interviews is on the site. Here are links:

• CBS "Face the Nation"
• ABC "This Week"
• NBC "Meet the Press"
• CNN "State of the Union"
• Univision

Hope, Change, and Profit

From CQ Politics:

The hours are long, the work is sporadic, and chances of failure lurk eveywhere, but politics is still a place where hot-shot operatives can pull down a six-figure salary, a CQ MoneyLine analysis has found.

The analysis of expenditure reports showed that at least 216 campaign and political action committee staffers made more than $100,000 each in the 2008 election cycle.

The largest reported paycheck, nearly $300,000, went to Eli Pariser, former executive director of MoveOn.org Jay Banning, the former chief financial officer for the Republican National Committee, was second, taking in $291,780. Karrie Harris Cohen was a close third. She was paid $288,094 for running the Every Republican Is Crucial political action committee tied to House Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia.

ACORN

In Epic Journey, we tell how the site my.barackobama.com was a big asset to the Obama campaign. It has also proved to be a liability, since it provides material to opposition researchers. A case in point is his now-embarrassing talk to ACORN in November 2007, dutifully recorded by Sam Graham-Felsen:

When Obama met with ACORN leaders in November, he reminded them of his history with ACORN and his beginnings in Illinois as a Project Vote organizer, a nonprofit focused on voter rights and education. Senator Obama said, "I come out of a grassroots organizing background. That's what I did for three and half years before I went to law school. That's the reason I moved to Chicago was to organize. So this is something that I know personally, the work you do, the importance of it. I've been fighting alongside ACORN on issues you care about my entire career. Even before I was an elected official, when I ran Project Vote voter registration drive in Illinois, ACORN was smack dab in the middle of it, and we appreciate your work.”

Clinton, Newsom, and Brown

Bill Clinton is reportedly endorsing San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom over Attorney General Jerry Brown in the California's Democratic gubernatorial primary. Why? One reason is that Newsom supported Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential bid. (Newsom still remembered an old snub by Barack Obama.) But there is another, bigger, reason.

When Brown ran against Clinton for the 1992 presidential nomination, things got ... heated. See:




As William Faulkner once explained: "The past is never dead. It's not even past."

2010

AP notes that 54 Democrats entered the House in the sweeps of 2006 and 2008. Many come from swing districts or GOP-leaning constituencies. Now they have to defend tough votes on health and other issues.

Add to that the absence of Obama from the top of the ticket, which could reduce turnout among blacks, liberals and young people, and the likelihood of a highly motivated GOP base confused by the president's proposed health care plan and angry at what they consider reckless spending and high debt.

Taken together, it could be the most toxic environment for Democrats since 1994, when the party lost 34 House incumbents and 54 seats altogether. Democrats currently have a 256-178 edge in the House, with one vacancy. Republicans would have to pick up 40 seats to regain control.