CA: Senate Race is Close

David Siders reports in The Sacramento Bee:

Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer's job performance rating has fallen to a near record low, though she maintains a narrow, three-point lead over Republican rival Carly Fiorina in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Field Poll released today.

Forty-three percent of registered voters disapprove of the job Boxer is doing, while 42 percent approve, according to the nonpartisan poll. Among likely voters in November, 48 percent disapprove of the job Boxer is doing, the poll showed.

Not since 1994, two years after she was first elected, has Boxer's job rating been so low.

Still, Boxer leads Fiorina 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to the poll. Fiorina had come within one percentage point of Boxer in March, after trailing by as many as 30 points early last year.

...

In addition to her weak job performance rating, Boxer's general image rating remains below where it stood last year. More likely voters hold an unfavorable view of her than a favorable one, 52 percent to 41 percent, according to the poll.

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/07/08/2875833/boxers-job-marks-plummet-but-she.html#mi_rss=State%20Politics#ixzz0t5zmhs00

Boxer is going after Fiorina. Jesse Dungan reports in The Oakland Tribune:

Boxer acknowledged in her Wednesday night appearance that Hewlett-Packard is headquartered in Palo Alto, and she attacked Fiorina's track record at the global computer company, saying Fiorina tripled her salary while laying off numerous workers.

"Carly Fiorina never fought for our families," Boxer said. "She never even tried to."

The senator also took aim at Fiorina's political record: "A lot of people don't know who our opponent is because — guess what? — she never held public office."

Fiorina is not for American jobs, but instead supports corporate breaks and outsourcing, Boxer said.

"You couldn't have two candidates that disagree more on the basic issues of our time," she said.

And Boxer is trying to come across as a Feinstein-style workhorse. Maeve Reston reports in The Los Angeles Times:

For months, her Republican opponent Carly Fiorina has contended that Boxer is a "failed senator" with little to show for her time in the Senate. Fiorina's supporters tailed Boxer on Wednesday with signs bearing that message, and her spokeswoman, Julie Soderlund, kept up the criticism by accusing Boxer of trying to "rewrite the facts about her record and pretend she has actually accomplished something for the people of California."

To refute those attacks, Boxer's staff has spent the last few months cataloging every amendment, earmark and executive order that the senator has worked on over her three terms — posting many of them on her website and assembling packets of the "highlights" for local reporters in each city in her two-day campaign swing across California. The trip marked the formal campaign kickoff for Boxer.

CA: Tied Race for Governor

From the San Francisco Chronicle:

California's race for governor is a dead heat, as Republican Meg Whitman's massive advertising blitz coupled with Democrat Jerry Brown's lo-fi campaign have raised doubts about Brown and cut his lead among Latino voters and other key Democratic constituencies, a Field Poll released today shows.

Brown leads Whitman 44 to 43 percent in the poll, with 13 percent undecided, according to Field's survey of 1,005 likely voters. The poll, conducted June 22 to July 5, has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

But billionaire Whitman's relentless advertising campaign has helped sour voters' views of Brown, with 40 percent holding an unfavorable opinion of him - up from 25 percent in March 2009. Still, 42 percent view him favorably.

Voters feel similarly mixed about Whitman, with 40 percent viewing her favorably. But 42 percent view her unfavorably, up from 27 percent in March 2010, largely because of her bruising GOP primary against Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and attacks on her from union-backed independent expenditure groups.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/07/07/MNIB1EA81L.DTL#ixzz0t1iXCx25

Arizona Lawsuit

Politico reports that the Obama administration lawsuit against the Arizona immigration law may imperil Western Democrats.

“This is a tough issue for Democrats,” said former Colorado Gov. Dick Lamm, a Democrat who is co-director of the Institute for Public Policy Studies at the University of Denver. “Politically, I just can’t think of any place in the West where this is going to play well.”

"If you look like you're siding with illegal immigration, you're in trouble," said one national Republican strategist, adding that when it comes to the discussion of secured borders, "people think that's what should happen."

While the suit could prove helpful to President Barack Obama by revving up his own base in 2012 – and, by extension, prove harmful to Republicans that year because they risk offending a key and growing segment of the electorate—the near-term impact is a different matter.

One GOP strategist compared it to the ads Republican Pete Wilson ran in 1994 in California as he was trailing in the polls for his gubernatorial re-election bid on Proposition 187, the state's tough-as-nails immigration ballot option that roiled Latino voters for a generation - but won him his seat for another term.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39431.html#ixzz0t0MpFjHO

The anonymous GOP strategist is repeating an urban legend. Wilson did not endorse Proposition 187 until September 15, 1994. But by then, he was already ahead. A Los Angeles Times poll, conducted September 8-11 found that Wilson led Brown among likely voters 50-41 percent.

American Crossroads and Citizens United

Think Progress reports:

On Fox News today, Rove directly credited his group’s success to the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, which overturned the decades-old ban on corporate money in politics:

HOST: Some suggest that the money that goes to American Crossroads might otherwise go to an organization like the RNC.

ROVE: Well that’s not correct, because American Crossroads is collecting money in excess of the individual contribution limits the RNC has allowed to give. What we’ve essentially said, is if you’ve maxed out the to senatorial committee, the congressional committee or the RNC and would like to do more, under the Citizens United decisions, you can give money to the American Crossroads 527, or Crossroads GPS, so we’re not tapping the people who — if you’ve giving to American Crossroads, you’re fully capable, in all likelihood, of giving the maximum to one of the national committee organizations

Video is here.

The White Vote in 2010

There are currently 72 House districts in which whites make up less than 60 percent of the population. Democrats hold 70 of them. Nearly all of these districts will keep going Democratic regardless of national trends. Control of the House hinges on the 363 mostly-white districts.

Democrats thus have reason to worry, as Michael Barone noted last month, and as Chris Cillizza reports in The Washington Post (h/t Fred Lynch):

"Since in the past House elections white voters tended to represent the independent vote, [the midterms] will surely be devastating for Democrats running in an election that will be a referendum on the Obama agenda," predicted one senior Democratic operative who closely tracks House races.

In Washington Post-ABC polling, Obama's approval rating among white voters has dropped from better than 60 percent to just above 40 percent. In a June poll, 46 percent of white voters under age 40 approved of how Obama was doing, compared with just 39 percent of whites 65 and older.

The latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll reveals that Obama's standing among white voters is remarkably similar to that of President George W. Bush at this same time two years ago.

In the June 2008 NBC-WSJ survey, 37 percent of white men and 26 percent of white women approved of the job Bush was doing. In the June 2010 poll, an identical 37 percent of white men approved of Obama's handling of his job, as did 35 percent of white women.

...

One senior strategist, speaking candidly about his concerns on the condition of anonymity, noted that white voters made up 79 percent of the 2006 midterm electorate, while they made up 74 percent of the 2008 vote. If the white percentage returns to its 2006 level, that means there will be 3 million more white voters than if it stayed at its 2008 levels. That scenario, said the source, "would generate massive losses" for House and Senate Democrats in November because of Obama's standing with that demographic.

House GOP Agenda Survey

Roll Call reports:

As part of their ongoing project to craft a new Republican agenda, House GOP leaders have asked for input from everywhere — regular citizens, online activists and national party leaders — and now they are surveying themselves.

Chief Deputy Minority Whip Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) last week asked Republican Members to fill out a three-page “private survey” reporting what constituents have told them are the most important issues facing the country.

The poll is part of the America Speaking Out project, a multipronged effort launched by House Republican leaders in May to gather ideas for their new agenda from citizens around the country.

Republicans expect to release the final policy document in September.

The effort bears a striking resemblance to the Contract with America. In 1994, House GOP leaders surveyed their members, and held the signing event in September.

American Crossroads Plans

CQ Politics reports:

Crossroads appears to be primarily focused on the Senate (since it has already announced it is targeting key races in 10 states), while the American Action Network will focus on the House. But it appears that both groups want to reserve the right to play in any race they want, depending on the situation and the desires of their donors.

Crossroads just extended its television ad buy against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid into a fourth week and has now spent close to half a million dollars against the Nevada Democrat.

According to Law, Crossroads also plans to develop “full-service” political operations in the largest states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

“Many independent groups tend to be media heavy, and we’ll certainly emphasize advertising,” Law explained, “but we want the capability to have boots on the ground and communicate directly with voters.”

...

Crossroads can communicate with the chamber, Action Network and other outside groups but is prohibited from coordinating with the party campaign committees.

“There’s not some master plan,” according to one GOP consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of potentially getting work for the groups. “The ‘well-organized right’ is never well-organized.”