Pardon

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's character. 

Nicole Lafond at TPM:

President Donald Trump on Friday told reporters that he has every intention of using his pardoning power to its fullest extent, suggesting again that he has the power to pardon himself — “But I’ll never have to do it.” Trump said he is considering “thousands” of pardon applications — about 3,000 in total — including heavyweight boxer Muhammad Ali, who died in 2016.  

“There will be more pardons. I thought Alice yesterday was beautiful. … I’m thinking about somebody that you all know very well and he went though a lot,” he said. “His memory is very popular now, I’m thinking about Muhammad Ali. I’m thinking about that seriously. And some others and some folks whose have sentences that aren’t fair.”

JUST IN: @MuhammadAli’s attorney responds to reports of @realDonaldTrump possible pardoning consideration. @WLKY pic.twitter.com/hV4WLsLxwL

— Tre Ward (@TreWardWLKY) June 8, 2018

State of the State

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional politics as well as the presidential race. 

• On the surface, California seems to be doing well.  The economy has been growing, and we have avoided the budget crises that used to plague the state.  But there are big problems.  
• The first is inequality.  By the Census Bureau's supplemental poverty measure, California has the highest poverty rate of the fifty states. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2017/demo/p60-261.pdf  This measure accounts for housing costs, which are extremely high in this state.  The contrast of rich and poor is particularly jarring in Los Angeles and the Bay Area, where limousines routinely pass by homeless people. 
• The second is the long-term budget picture.  The unfunded liabilities of pension systems will create ever-larger taxpayer burdens.   And the mild budget season will come to an abrupt end when the next recession hits.  The top one percent of taxpayers account for nearly half of state personal income tax revenue.  The healthy stock market of recent years has been a boon to them and to the state's treasury.  When stocks go down, the revenues will dry up.  

Thoughts on the California Primary

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional politics as well as the presidential race. 

Turnout

• We don't know what the turnout is.  The election night numbers were incomplete.  
• First, California has always been slow to tally the total number of voters.
• Second, there are probably an unusually large number of provisional ballots this year,  The the LA County Registrar accidentally dropped 100,000 people from the list, so those people had to cast provisional ballots if they showed up at the polls.
• Third, we just started using same-day registration.  Same-day registrants cast conditional ballots, which must be verified.
• Fourth, under a law that went into effect in 2015, mail ballots, a ballot counts if it is postmarked by election day and received by officials by Friday.   Literally no one knows how many ballots will arrive today and tomorrow.
• In short, we won't have a good handle on turnout until the weekend at least.

Moderation

• The top-two primary was supposed to serve as a moderating force in California politics.  But it does not always work that way.  In the crowded race against Rohrabacher, Harley Rouda pounded liberal themes: https://youtu.be/aRwzbqjNqaM.  He sought to stand out from the crowd by championing the party's rising progressive wing. (As of this writing, he is in a tight race for second place).

Senate Race

• Feinstein had a huge lead over Kevin deLeon.  She has a reputation as a practical dealmaker, and he is a liberal champion.  So why idid he fare so poorly?  
• First, she has a generally liberal record.  On one of the few issues where she's taken a more conservative position -- the death penalty -- she recently changed her mind. 
• Second, it is tough for state legislative leaders to get attention in California, given ever-diminishing media coverage of state news.  He was a big shot in Sacramento and his home district, but totally unknown elsewhere.  
• Third, an accused sexual harasser -- Tony Mendoza -- was his apartment-mate in Sacramento:  questions about "what did he know and when did he know it" dampened enthusiasm in the progressive community. (Mendoza failed to clear the top two in his bid to return to the Senate.)

Browns

• It really is the end of an era.  Between 1946 and 2014, there were 18 midterm elections.  A member of the Brown family was on the California statewide ballot in 15 of them.  (Pat Brown ran 6 times, Jerry Brown ran 7 times, and Kathleen Brown ran twice.) 

The GOP

• Democratic consultant Steve Maviglio accurately describes the GOP's plight:
• Things have gotten so bad that Republicans are popping champagne corks simply because they have a live body in the governors race. But GOP voters won’t have anyone to vote for in the U.S. Senate, LG or Insurance Commissioner (where they didn’t even field a candidate) races. The challengers in the AG, Treasurer and Controller races are unknown and underfunded. Sorry, folks, but John Cox is not going to the magnet that attracts Republicans to the polls.
• The GOP has practically disappeared in large swatches of the state.  In the suburban Assembly district where I live -- a place that once leaned Republican -- Democrat Laura Friedman is running unopposed for reelection.  In other places, the absence of a real party structure has enabled kooks and bigots to get on the ballot as Republicans. http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2018/05/26/latest-vile-anti-semite-to-run-for-congress-is-from-california/

Thoughts on Top Two

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional politics as well as the presidential race.

The following results in the California primary reflect totals as of 7 AM on Wednesday.

Governor

• Newsom 33.3%
• Cox 26.2%
• Villaraigosa 13.5%

Senator

• Feinstein 43.8%
• deLeon 11.3%

House Seats: Seven districts in California have Republican incumbents but voted for Clinton in 2016. Democrats are hoping to take these seats in 2018, but they worried that the top-two primary might result in all-Republican contests in some of them. But it appears that Democrats will be on the November ballot in all seven. In the 10th District (Denham), a Democrat is in second place by a small margin.

In most races, top-two produced the same result as a closed primary:  a Republican and a Democrat. Contrary to the hopes of supporters of the procedure, it usually did not lead to the nomination of more centrists.  Villaraigosa was to the right of Newsom, but he had little appeal to Republicans and moderate independents.

Clarification: 459 Leg and Cong races under top two since ‘12. Only CD 31 in ‘12 was two Reeps in a Dem seat. The fear is overblown. @markzbarabak https://t.co/7DYliXrHLG

— Garry South (@GarrySouth) June 5, 2018

Top-two did not generally change outcomes, but it did change tactics.

• Newsom wanted Cox to finish second, figuring that he would be easy to beat in November.  In TV ads and text messages targeting Republican voters, he “attacked” Cox’s ties to Trump, thereby trying to motivate Trump supporters to vote for him. 
• In the Rohrabacher district, Democrats successfully tried to prevent a shutout by attacking Republican Scott Baugh.  They also did robocalls supporting another Republican in hope of siphoning GOP votes from Baugh.
• Democrats tried to cull the herd:  they discouraged certain candidacies in hopes of consolidating support and avoiding shutowns.

Gaming the Top Two Primary

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional politics as well as the presidential race. 

California's top-two primary encourages gamesmanship.  Democrats try to play the GOP side, either to split the vote or to get a sure loser on the November ballot.

I am now a registered independent ("decline to state") but am probably still on some databases as a high-propensity GOP voter. @GavinNewsom wants such voters to make unelectable @TheRealJohnHCox his November opponent, which is why I got this text. pic.twitter.com/aAEZcioCrj

— Jack Pitney (@jpitney) June 4, 2018

Trump on the Law

  In Defying the Odds, we discuss Russian involvement in the 2016 campaign.

As has been stated by numerous legal scholars, I have the absolute right to PARDON myself, but why would I do that when I have done nothing wrong? In the meantime, the never ending Witch Hunt, led by 13 very Angry and Conflicted Democrats (& others) continues into the mid-terms!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 4, 2018

From the Office of Legal Counsel:

Under the fundamental rule that no one may be a judge in his own case, the President cannot pardon himself.

 

If I win-I am going to instruct my AG to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation bc there's never been anything like your lies.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 10, 2016

Trump Has Bad Lawyers

  In Defying the Odds, we discuss Russian involvement in the 2016 campaign.

In a letter to Mueller, Trump's lawyers said he "dictated a short but accurate response to the New York Times" about the infamous Trump Tower meeting with Russians. But here are FIVE TIMES @JaySekulow and @PressSec previously denied Trump's role in the misleading statement. pic.twitter.com/DINgjFdKvL

— Marshall Cohen (@MarshallCohen) June 2, 2018