Mamdani's Attack Ad Is Very, Very Good

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional,  state, and local elections.

 

The Fall of Dynasties

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a discussion of state and local politics.

At Politico, Alexander Burns notes that Andrew Cuomo's primary defeat is part of a larger pattern:

In the past few years, we have seen Democratic primary voters reject members of political dynasties once seen as nearly undefeatable, including a Kennedy in Massachusetts, a Daley in Illinois and a Graham in Florida. When Tammy Murphy, the first lady of New Jersey, attempted to swoop into a Senate seat with the help of her husband’s machine, she was blown out of the race by an insurgent who embodied generational change, now-Sen. Andy Kim.

On the right, Donald Trump’s political movement has purged the party’s most storied dynasties. Republican voters spurned members of the Bush family, Jeb and his son George P., in primary elections. The Cheney family’s titanic stature in Wyoming — and a direct-to-camera appeal from Dick Cheney himself — could not save former Rep. Liz Cheney from a primary challenger in 2022. A scheme by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to install his spouse, Casey, as his successor appears to have unraveled before it began.

General election voters have done their part, declining to elect a Pryor in Arkansas, a Landrieu in Louisiana, a Nunn and a Carter in Georgia, a Laxalt in Nevada, a Casey in Pennsylvania and a Clinton on the national ballot.

Mamdani

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a discussion of state and local politics.

Politico Playbook:

New York delivered a true political earthquake last night as Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old state assembly member and democratic socialist, stormed to victory in the city’s Democratic mayoral primary. Mamdani, a rank outsider before his social media-driven campaign gained traction with voters in the final weeks of the race, swept aside former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, earning more than 43 percent of the first-place votes. He should be confirmed as the Dem nominee next week, once ranked-choice votes have been counted.

Cuomo crushed: “Tonight was not our night,” said Cuomo, a once-towering figure of New York politics who had led in almost every opinion poll, massively outraised his rivals and racked up a string of high-profile endorsements ahead of Election Day. “I want to applaud [Mamdani] for a really smart, good and impactful campaign. Tonight is his night. He deserves it. He won.”
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Indeed: This campaign neatly mirrored the Democrats’ generational and political divide so apparent on the national stage, writes POLITICO’s Jeff Coltin. “A young, inexperienced socialist running on a hopeful message with the backing of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, versus a 67-year-old, three-term former New York governor who worked in Bill Clinton’s Cabinet and got the ex-president’s endorsement in the race’s waning days.” And in New York City, at least, there was only one winner.

Bring on the hot takes: But for plenty of observers, this wasn’t about identity. Mamdani has promised free buses, free child care, city-run grocery stores, rent freezes, wealth taxes and more. And whatever you think of those kinds of pledges, there’s a running theme that plenty of Dems believe was the real lesson from last night: Mamdani won by focusing relentlessly on the cost of living — the issue poll after poll shows voters care about most. (It’s still the economy, stupid.)

You want more hot takes? There are plenty to choose from. Mamdani won by getting out and talking to people — unlike Cuomo, who relied on ads, endorsements and the like. … Mamdani won with social media buzz, Gen Z-friendly Pop Crave videos and so on — unlike Cuomo, who ran as a traditional Democrat and received a convoluted NYT nonendorsement. … Mamdani won by running as an insurgent and being prepared to criticize Israel over Gaza — unlike Cuomo who has defended PM Benjamin Netanayahu to the hilt.

Cuomo's Fall

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. Yesterday, sexual harassment allegations forced the resignation of NY Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer at WP:

Cuomo’s decision Tuesday to step down from office was not driven by a sense of penance or contrition, aides said, but rather by a recognition that his fate was set.

After governing New York with an iron fist for more than than a decade — and amassing an enviable list of achievements along the way — he had few allies willing to stand by him. Politically isolated, he faced the prospect of being expelled from the governor’s mansion by the state legislature and banned from running for state office again.

“He didn’t want to be the second governor in the history of New York state to be impeached. And he knew he’d be impeached,” said Kathryn Wylde, the president and chief executive of the Partnership for New York City, an influential business group, who had talked to some of the governor’s staffers.

Cuomo didn’t even try to call to plead his case with Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, with some people close to him saying it would be a futile effort. Over the past week, his advisers determined that he had fewer than a dozen supporters left in the Assembly. Several thought he would certainly be convicted in the Senate and urged him to consider resigning. “We had no chance there,” said one adviser, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

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 “If you are going to come at the king, you best not miss. If you are going to bully everyone, you best not slip,” said Preet Bharara, a former U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York who investigated Cuomo and then became an object of the governor’s angry fixation. 

Andrew Cuomo, the Goner

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections.

  Jonah E. Bromwich and Luis Ferré-Sadurní at NYT

A woman who accused Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of groping her breast in the Executive Mansion last year has filed a criminal complaint with the Albany County sheriff’s department, the sheriff’s office said on Friday.

The criminal complaint from the woman, an executive assistant whose name has not been publicized, increases the possibility that the governor could face criminal charges related to his behavior.

Legal experts have said that his conduct toward the assistant, as described in a 165-page report released by the New York State attorney general’s office this week, could be charged as forcible touching, a misdemeanor.

Mr. Cuomo, a third-term Democrat, has repeatedly denied ever inappropriately touching the woman, or any of the others who have accused him of sexual misconduct. On Thursday, he said he would cooperate with the State Assembly’s request for information as it concludes its investigation into his conduct and prepares to draft articles of impeachment against him.

Marina Villeneuve and Jennifer Peltz at AP:

A majority of state Assembly members support beginning impeachment proceedings against Gov. Andrew Cuomo if he doesn’t resign over investigative findings that he sexually harassed at least 11 women, according to an Associated Press count Wednesday.

At least 86 of the body’s 150 members have said publicly or told The AP that they favored initiating the process of ousting the third-term Democratic governor if he doesn’t quit. It takes a simple majority to authorize an impeachment trial.

Casey Seiler at the Albany Times-Union:

In a joint statement released Friday morning, 41 county Democratic chairs called on Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo to "immediately resign" in the wake of a devastating report from the state attorney general's report that concluded the governor was a serial sexual harasser.

The statement comes less than 48 hours after the party's state chairman, Jay Jacobs, made the same call.

 

 

Andrew Cuomo in Trouble

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections.

From the NYS Attorney General:

We, the investigators appointed to conduct an investigation into allegations of sexual harassment by Governor Andrew M. Cuomo, conclude that the Governor engaged in conduct constituting sexual harassment under federal and New York State law. Specifically, we find that the Governor sexually harassed a number of current and former New York State employees by, among other things, engaging in unwelcome and nonconsensual touching, as well as making numerous offensive comments of a suggestive and sexual nature that created a hostile work environment for women. Our investigation revealed that the Governor’s sexually harassing behavior was not limited to members of his own staff, but extended to other State employees, including a State Trooper on his protective detail and members of the public. We also conclude that the Executive Chamber’s culture—one filled with fear and intimidation, while at the same time normalizing the Governor’s frequent flirtations and gender-based comments—contributed to the conditions that allowed the sexual harassment to occur and persist. That culture also influenced the improper and inadequate ways in which the Executive Chamber has responded to allegations of harassment.

Katie Glueck at NYT:

Lawmakers who had previously been fearful of publicly criticizing Mr. Cuomo, aware of his capacity for retribution, are now calling for his resignation. Elected officials who represent core Cuomo constituencies — including Black voters and white suburban voters — have increasingly urged him to step aside. Eric Adams, the Democratic mayoral nominee whom Mr. Cuomo was eager to embrace earlier this summer, encouraged the Assembly to “move forward with impeachment proceedings if the governor will not resign,” and top labor leaders are increasingly breaking with the governor.

Most significantly, President Biden — a longtime friend of Mr. Cuomo’s — and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has long been close with the Cuomo family, for the first time on Tuesday urged him to step aside.

 

New York GOP: Trumpified and Weakened

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. It also discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. 

Anna Gronewald at Politico:

New York Republicans are about to get their best chance in years to take back state government: A five-alarm scandal that’s left Gov. Andrew Cuomo facing an impeachment inquiry and multiple investigations.

But 15 years after the departure of George Pataki — a moderate and the only Republican to win a New York governor’s race in five decades — the GOP is bucking conventional wisdom that suggests a center-right gubernatorial candidate is their best, perhaps only, shot at success.

Party leaders from across the state, looking to avoid a potential civil war, have been rallying around Rep. Lee Zeldin of Long Island — a Donald Trump-loving conservative who voted to overturn the results of the 2020 election and has fought ardently to oppose abortion rights. Other contenders look much the same and include upstate firebrand Rep. Elise Stefanik and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s son, Andrew Giuliani. Both are also backers of Trump, who lost the state by some 2 million votes last year.

The dynamics are not the result of choice or strategy but rather environment. The GOP is nearly decimated across the state, and with a polarized landscape on the heels of a Trump presidency, it might be impossible to find a GOP candidate who can appeal to center-right Democrats and independents — especially one who has the kind of financing and zeal Zeldin does.

The next George Pataki simply doesn't exist.

Governors in Trouble

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discussed state elections.

California's Gavin Newsom faces a recall effort.

 Sophia Bollag at The Sacramento Bee:

The most recent polls measuring Newsom’s approval ratings, including the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll DiCamillo runs, show a decline in support for Newsom after a dramatic high early in the pandemic.

“He’s seen as higher up in the social strata than other Californians,” DiCamillo said. “That could be a longer term issue for him even if he improves his job rating.”

Pollsters say voters’ views of politicians are more often shaped by partisan preferences and their own sense of well-being.

The last time voters soured so much on Newsom was in fall 2019, when a series of wildfires blanketed the state in smoke, according to polls conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Newsom’s fortunes are now tied to the pandemic, especially after he set himself up as the face of California’s coronavirus response with his daily COVID-19 news conferences, DiCamillo said.

In its latest polling on Newsom, the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found 46% of Californians approve of the job he’s doing, while 48% disapprove. Meanwhile, 44% have an overall favorable view of him, while 49% have an unfavorable view.

Eric Lutz at Vanity Fair:

He was a self-styled pandemic hero, purporting to fill a leadership void left by Donald Trump. Even as that myth began to crumble, he still seemed unlikely to lose his grip on power. But a new misconduct allegation, one that has reportedly been referred to Albany police, has put Andrew Cuomo’s governorship in even greater peril, with a majority of New York state legislators calling for his resignation, and Democrats opening an impeachment investigation into the man who had been, just last summer, a party star. “The reports of accusations concerning the governor are serious,” Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said in a statement authorizing Judiciary Chair Charles Lavine’s probe Thursday. “I have the utmost faith that Assemblymember Lavine and the members of the committee will conduct an expeditious, full and thorough investigation.”

Cuomo has been at the center of two massive scandals—one for apparently covering up the real toll of COVID-19 on New York nursing home residents, and one for alleged sexual harassment and misconduct. As he faced scrutiny from New York Attorney General Leticia James and others over nursing home deaths, several women came forward to accuse the governor of unwanted advances and inappropriate behavior. He denied wrongdoing, vowing not to resign and digging in his heels. But an explosive new accusation this week may have changed the calculus: A current aide to Cuomo told the Albany Times-Union that he summoned her to the executive mansion in late 2020 and groped her underneath her blouse in the second-floor residence. The allegation, the most serious to date, has been referred to Albany police, marking the first time an accusation against Cuomo has resulted in potential legal exposure. As in the other alleged incidents, Cuomo has adamantly denied the accusation. “I have never done anything like this,” he said.

But the new allegation opened the floodgates wider. The chorus of state lawmakers demanding his resignation grew to more than 120. “All of us are extremely disappointed,” Democratic Assemblywoman Aileen Gunther told the Associated Press. “I think there’s no room in the world right now for that kind of behavior.” It also triggered the impeachment investigation and is yet another item on Tish James’ radar. “Our investigation will continue,” the AG said.

Legacy Candidates, Legacy Policies

Michael Barone notes that many leading Democrats are legacies:

• Governor Jerry Brown, son of Governor Pat Brown;
• Governor Andrew Cuomo, son of Governor Mario Cuomo;
• Senator Mark Pryor, son of Senator David Pryor;
• Senator Mary Landrieu, daughter of Mayor Moon Landrieu;
• Senator Mark Begich, son of Representative Nick Begich;
• Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, wife of President Bill Clinton

He could also have mentioned candidate Michelle Nunn, daughter of Senator Sam Nunn.

He notes that Democratic policies on entitlements and other issues are also legacies.

Every political party has its grizzled veteran officeholders and succumbs sometimes to the temptation to champion antique policies and talking points that poll well rather than innovative policies better suited to new times. But Barack Obama’s — and Hillary Clinton’s — Democratic Party, stung by the electorate’s ingratitude for its economic policies and Obamacare, seems to have jumped into a “Back to the Future” DeLorean and steered half a century back in time. 

Who would have thought “hope and change” meant Industrial Age big government for the individual-choice-oriented Information Age?

King Andrew

At The Daily Beast, Lloyd Green writes about the governor of New York:

Andrew Cuomo, meet Louis XIV, France’s Sun King. As tradition has it the Bourbon monarch, who ruled from the mid-1600s until 1715, quipped “L’État, c’est moi,” which translates “I am the State.” Fast-forward three centuries, and Cuomo II sounds awfully like the long-dead Louis.

When confronted with pushback over his decision in March to disband an anti-corruption commission—the so-called Moreland Commission—which Cuomo himself appointed in 2013, the governor was defiant. He bellowed to Crain’s: “It’s my commission. My subpoena power, my Moreland Commission. I can appoint it, I can disband it. I appoint you, I can un-appoint you tomorrow...It’s my commission. I can’t ‘interfere’ with it, because it is mine. It is controlled by me.” For history buffs, the commission itself takes its name from a 1907 law that empowers New York’s governors to appoint investigative bodies to root out wrongdoing.

Cuomo may now be learning that executive arrogance comes with a price. Immediately after the governor’s self-aggrandizing pronouncement, Preet Bharara, the federal prosecutor for the Southern District of New York, expressed his dismay with Cuomo, particularly given the state’s corruption-rich environment. So there’s no doubt, the Empire State is among the most corrupt in America. Between 1976 and 2010, New York led America in federal public corruption convictions with more than 2,500.

The March disbanding of the commission didn’t generate much outrage. But then last week, The New York Times dropped a bombshell story on how Team Cuomo rigged the game, and how this latest Moreland Commission was never about being independent. Rather, it was about beating the legislature into submission.

Name ID of Potential Democratic Candidates

Except for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, Democrats don't know much about potential 2016 Democratic candidates. Gallup reports:

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and O'Malley do not have the long political careers that Biden and Clinton have, and at this point, they are struggling to attain a high profile on the national stage.

• Andrew Cuomo, son of three-term New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, is running for his second term as governor this year after previously being the state's attorney general and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Bill Clinton. Despite that long career and being in a prominent family that includes his brother Chris Cuomo, a CNN news personality, nearly half of Democrats (48%) have never heard of or don't have an opinion of the governor.
• Elizabeth Warren, a first-term senator, was a former Harvard Law professor and served in the Obama administration as a special adviser to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. She has been campaigning nationally for Democratic candidates, some of whom are running in traditionally strong Republican states, such as West Virginia and Kentucky. Warren has said that she is touting her populist message to ensure the Democratic agenda succeeds in the next Congress. However, Warren is still far from a household name among Democrats: 57% of Democrats nationally have never heard of or don't have an opinion of the senator.
• Martin O'Malley is finishing his second term as governor of Maryland, having been elected in 2006 after eight years as the mayor of Baltimore. While he counts as a success signing same-sex marriage into state law in 2012, O'Malley has not gained much traction with the American public. The vast majority of Democrats (84%) have neither heard of O'Malley or don't have an opinion of him.