The best guess – and it is more than a guess since reasonably accurate population projections for the states are no secret – is that the following states are likely to gain one seat in Congress and one electoral vote: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. Texas will gain at least two and probably three. One other state is likely to gain a seat, but it is not clear at this point which one it will be.
Five of those states, including Texas, went for Republican John McCain in 2008, but all except Washington backed Mr. Bush in the close 2000 and 2004 elections – an indication that if 2012 is as close as it was in those two years, this year’s census could give the GOP nine of the 10 votes.
Conversely, Ohio is expected to lose two congressional seats and Electoral College votes while Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania are expected to lose one each. President Obama carried all of those states in 2008 except Louisiana.
Keep in mind these are estimates and the numbers might be off here or there, but there is no doubt about the overall trend.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Electoral College Shift
Peter Brown writes in The Wall Street Journal that the 2010 census will help the GOP in the 2012 presidential election: