The public increasingly sees Barack Obama’s policies as having an impact on economic conditions and, for the first time, slightly more say the impact has been negative rather than positive.Gallup data are not favorable, either:
About three-in-ten (29%) say Obama’s economic policies since taking office have made economic conditions worse; 23% say his policies have made conditions better. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) say they have had no effect so far or volunteer that it is too soon to tell, according to the latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM. The survey was conducted June 3-6 among 1,002 adults.
A stronger-than-usual anti-incumbent bias is another challenge for a majority Democratic Party that is trying to minimize the losses usually dealt to the president's party in a midterm election year. Gallup's Daily tracking of registered-voter candidate preferences this year has typically shown Republicans and Democrats tied or the Republicans with a slight lead, either of which would generally predict a strong Republican showing at the polls on Election Day.
That day is still nearly five months away, but typically, voters' attitudes toward incumbents do not change dramatically over the course of an election year. To the extent change has occurred in a given election year, it has usually been toward a more negative rather than a more positive view of incumbents.